Архив за 18 декабря, 2023

Grain market:

Our eggs’ prices are already exhausted without us. We won’t write about them. It’s better about the coming to power of right-wing politicians in Europe. There is a feeling that rainbow flags will soon come to an end, and people will begin to look at each other through the prism of practicality. Look, in Europe it will be like in Iran: they will start asking for gold to rent an apartment. Just a few grams. In such a situation, you can’t wave a flag anymore. Everyone gets to work! The euro will remain for now, but who knows, who knows…

And the ruble will remain for now. Hello!

This release was prepared with the direct participation of analysts from trading platforms eOil.ru and IDK.ru. Here is an assessment of the situation on the global and Russian markets.

Chinese purchases supported the wheat market. Demand continues to remain at a good level. Following Egypt, which regularly holds tenders, Saudi Arabia wanted to buy almost three quarters of a million tons.

Over the past 10 years, we have seen a constant, albeit slow, increase in wheat production. All the best, but according to the theory of probability, we should already have some kind of strong incident. Most likely drought. So far the troubles have been overcome. Somewhere in Europe they took advantage of the opportunity to clean up river beds this summer. But if there is no water next year, this could cause serious problems, since the level of groundwater and the supply of moisture in river basins will decrease.

In Russia, the situation with the new harvest is quite good. 153 million tons of grain have been collected (Patrushev), of which 95 million tons of wheat (USDA 90 million tons), which gives us the opportunity to consistently export 7 million tons of wheat per month right up to next August. We most likely do not have such capacities, but since now everything (almost everything) collected beyond the Urals will be taken by China under a 12-year contract for the supply of 70 million tons of grain, it should become a little easier for the southern ports.

By reading our forecasts, you could take a move up in gold from 1840 to 1976 dollars per troy ounce. It was also possible to take a move up the dollar/ruble pair from 88.00 to 90.80.

Урожай пшеницы в Аргентине в 2023/24 году, вероятно, увеличится после сильных показателей в южном сельскохозяйственном регионе, сообщила в четверг зерновая биржа Буэнос-Айреса, чья оценка урожая зерна составляет 14,7 миллиона тонн. Аргентина является ведущим экспортером пшеницы, а недавние дожди в ключевых сельскохозяйственных районах улучшили состояние посевов, пострадавших от засухи и заморозков в начале сезона. В среду зерновая биржа Росарио повысила оценку производства пшеницы на 7,4% до 14,5 млн тонн из-за более высокой, чем ожидалось, урожайности. По данным биржи, за эту неделю аргентинские фермеры собрали 55,2% посевных площадей пшеницы.