Price forecast from 5 to 9 of September 2022
05 September 2022, 11:58
At the end of August, the picture of the quality of Russian wheat is as follows: 3rd class 27.8%, 4th class 49%, 5th class 23%. Shares of wheat of the 1st and 2nd class in aggregate are at the level of 0.2%. In general, the picture is favorable.
Export prices for Russian wheat with 12.5% protein and delivery in September fell to $310-315/t FOB. Oversupply puts pressure on the market. There are few deals. Exports are 25% behind the pace of last year.
Within the country, one cannot rule out a fall in prices in a number of regions to the cost levels: 6,500 rubles / ton for the 4th class. Prices are negatively affected by the uncertainty associated with sanctions. How far the West can go is anyone’s guess. Therefore, some market participants will not build any strategies for the spring, but will try to sell everything here and now at any price.
On September 12, next Monday, the next USDA report will be released, which will give forecasts for the gross harvest. The stock market is now somewhat overvalued amid expectations of good harvest data, therefore, we will tend to fall in the next five trading days.
By reading our forecasts, you could make money on the Brent oil market by taking a move down from $120.00 to $102.70 per barrel. You could also make money on the WTI oil market by taking a downward move from $114.00 to $97.60 per barrel. In addition, you could earn on the futures on the RTS index by taking a downward move from 129,000 to 111,000 points.
So, friends, the show begins! 100 thousand Czechs in Prague took to the streets demanding to buy gas from Russia, and at the same time demanded the resignation of the government.
Gas prices in Europe will be the reason for the battle between politicians and the common people this fall. The Czech Republic is just the beginning.
Chancellor Scholz said that from December Germany will stop buying gas from Russia. I wonder how long this self-confident guy will crush the German iron throne under him. The approval rating for his work is at 22%, which is an all-time low. I just want to say honestly: “Angela, come back”.
GAZPROM has stopped gas supplies to Europe via Nord Stream 1 for an indefinite period. Somewhere in there, they leaked some kind of oil. No one knows how to repair when there is a leak somewhere, the documentation is lost, there are no engineers. That is, all this is now for a long time, and maybe forever.
The United States has splashed half the world with its crazy idea to set a price for Russia to buy oil. For some reason, the option when Russia itself sets the price for its goods is not being considered. Someone will say that, they say, Russia is not the only supplier of resources. This is true. It is only obvious that after the price is set for Russia, tomorrow it will be set for Saudi Arabia. Then for the rest. Resource providers must now be together, otherwise the West will impose its will for decades. And how to enslave peoples and entire continents, the descendants of slave traders and conquistadors do not need to be taught.
The ruble continues to be stable. We see that the threats of the West to impose their pricing policy on Russia do not make a big impression on the national currency.
Also, the ruble does not respond to expectations for a rate cut by the Central Bank of the Russian Federation on September 16th. Analysts expect a decline of 0.5% to 7.5%, as domestic inflation began to slow down.
The trade balance will remain positive for a long time, which implies an excess supply of dollars in the market. This gives reason to believe that we will be in the range of 60.00 — 65.00 rubles against the US dollar for several weeks.
We’re looking at the volume of open interest of wheat managers. You should keep in your mind that these are data from three days ago (for Tuesday of the past week), they are also the most recent of those published by the CME Group.
Over the past week, the difference between long and short positions of managers has decreased by 5.3 thousand contracts. Buyers entered the market in a small number, sellers left the market in approximately the same volume. The situation is balanced.
Growth scenario: consider the December futures, the expiration date is December 14th. We need a rise above 850.0 cents a bushel before we can talk about buying. While out of the market.
Fall scenario: sellers currently have a small tactical advantage. Can be sold.
Recommendations for the wheat market:
Purchase: think after rising above 850.0 cents per bushel.
Sale: now. Stop: 832.0. Target: 650.0 cents per bushel.
Support — 790.6. Resistance is 869.0.
We’re looking at the volume of open interest of corn managers. You should keep in your mind that these are data from three days ago (for Tuesday of the past week), they are also the most recent of those published by the CME Group.
Last week the difference between long and short positions of managers increased by 29.7 thousand contracts. Buyers have been on a rampage for five weeks. This aggression does not fit well with the almost record-breaking expectations for the gross harvest. There is something wrong here. It is possible that the crowd is being lured into a huge trap.
Growth scenario: consider the December futures, the expiration date is December 14th. We will continue to stop shopping. There are no fundamental reasons for growth.
Fall scenario: we went short from 680.0. Now we need to hold positions and count on a good fall.
Recommendations for the corn market:
Sale: no. Who is in position from 680.0, keep the stop at 690.0. Target: 580.0 cents per bushel.
Support — 653.4. Resistance is 684.0.
Soybeans No. 1. CME Group
Growth scenario: we are considering the November futures, the expiration date is November 14th. Our belief that soybeans will not be able to rise above 1500.0 has been confirmed. We do not buy, we are waiting for lower price levels.
Fall scenario: it is necessary to sell. The chances of continuing to fall are good.
Recommendations for the soybean market: Purchase: no.
Sale: now and as we approach 1450.0. Stop: 1465.0. Target: 1000.0 cents per bushel.
Support — 1377.2. Resistance — 1433.4.
Sugar 11 white, ICE
Growth scenario: we consider the March futures, the expiration date is February 28. Found support at 17.60. We will keep long. Those who wish can buy at current levels.
Fall scenario: we keep the shorts open earlier, we do not open new positions.
Recommendations for the sugar market:
Purchase: now. Stop: 17.60. Target: 21.00. Who is in position from 18.25, keep the stop at 17.60. Target: 21.00 cents per pound.
Sale: no. Who is in position from 17.80, keep the stop at 18.40. Target: 15.20 cents a pound.
Support — 17.62. Resistance — 18.12.
Сoffee С, ICE
Growth scenario: consider the December futures, the expiration date is December 19. The market is unlikely to fall below 220.0. We will buy based on continued growth.
Fall scenario: do not sell. The market has not yet won back the problems with the Brazilian plantations.
Recommendations for the coffee market:
Purchase: now and on a pullback to 220.00. Stop: 200.00. Target: 350.00. Who is in position from 235.00, keep the stop at 200.00. Target: 350.00 cents per pound.
Support — 223.20. Resistance is 243.20.
We’re looking at the volume of open interest of managers. You should keep in your mind that these are data from three days ago (for Tuesday of the past week), they are also the most recent of those published by the ICE exchange.
Over the past week, the difference between long and short positions of managers increased by 16.1 thousand contracts. Bulls entered the market in large numbers, but at the same time there was a small influx of funds from sellers.
Growth scenario: consider the September futures, the expiration date is September 30th. Buyers failed to hold the market. There is a threat of a move below the 90.00 level, which will lead to a move to 85.00. We don’t buy.
Fall scenario: if the market allows, then you can sell from 100.00, otherwise we do not open shorts.
Recommendations for the Brent oil market: Purchase: no.
Sale: when approaching 100.00. Stop: 103.70. Brent target: $85.00 per barrel.
Support — 91.40. Resistance — 95.26.
WTI. CME Group
Commercial oil reserves in the US fell by -3.326 to 418.346 million barrels, while the forecast was -1.483 million barrels. Inventories of gasoline fell -1.172 to 214.475 million barrels. Distillate inventories rose by 0.112 to 111.706 million barrels. Inventories at Cushing fell -0.523 to 25.284 million barrels.
Oil production increased by 0.1 to 12.1 million barrels per day. Oil imports fell by -0.215 to 5.956 million barrels per day. Oil exports fell by -0.21 to 3.967 million barrels per day. Thus, net oil imports fell by -0.005 to 1.989 million barrels per day. Oil refining fell by -1.1 to 92.7 percent.
Gasoline demand rose by 0.157 to 8.591 million barrels per day. Gasoline production increased by 0.349 to 9.778 million barrels per day. Gasoline imports fell -0.031 to 0.584 million bpd. Gasoline exports rose by 0.12 to 1.04 million barrels per day.
Demand for distillates fell by -0.322 to 3.566 million barrels. Distillate production fell -0.281 to 4.919 million barrels. Distillate imports rose by 0.035 to 0.208 million barrels. Distillate exports fell -0.035 to 1.544 million bpd.
Demand for oil products rose by 0.734 to 20.073 million barrels. Production of petroleum products increased by 0.551 to 22.434 million barrels. Imports of petroleum products fell by -0.37 to 1.923 million barrels. Exports of petroleum products fell by -0.924 to 5.975 million barrels per day.
Propane demand fell -0.117 to 0.646 million barrels. Propane production fell by -0.015 to 2.403 million barrels. Propane imports rose by 0.051 to 0.119 million barrels. Propane exports fell by -0.45 to 1.272 mb/d.
We’re looking at the volume of open interest of WTI managers. You should keep in your mind that these are data from three days ago (for Tuesday of the past week), they are also the most recent of those published by the CME Group.
Last week the difference between long and short positions of managers decreased by 12.7 thousand contracts. Sellers actively entered the market, while there were very few buyers.
Growth scenario: we are considering the October futures, the expiration date is September 20. It is unlikely that the market will be able to stay above the level of 85.00. We don’t buy. Looking forward to lower prices.
Fall scenario: if the market allows, then we can sell from 92.00, otherwise we will miss a possible downward movement.
Recommendations for WTI oil:
Sale: when approaching 92.00. Stop: 96.60. Target: $70.00 per barrel.
Support — 85.31. Resistance is 97.83.
Growth scenario: consider the October futures, the expiration date is October 12. They went down very deep. We don’t buy. We take a break.
Fall scenario: if there is a rise to 1120.00, we will buy. You can keep open short positions from 1000.00.
Sale: when approaching 1120.00. Stop: 1190.00. Target: $920.00 per ton. Who is in position from 1000.00, move the stop to 1090.00. Target: $920.00 per ton.
Support — 1005.75. Resistance is 1083.75.
Natural Gas. CME Group
Growth scenario: we are considering the October futures, the expiration date is September 28. The US does not forecast gas surpluses this winter. It is likely that prices will continue to rise. We hold longs.
Fall scenario: we don’t believe in falling. So far, only short-term rollbacks are possible. We do not sell.
Recommendations for natural gas:
Purchase: no. Who is in position between 6.000 and 5.500, keep the stop at 7.800. Target: $15,800 for 1 million BTUs.
Support — 8.376. Resistance is 9.431.
Gold. CME Group
Growth scenario: it’s too early to buy gold. Closer to November, when the Fed’s policy of raising rates will be all in the long price, it may become relevant. Now out of the market.
Fall scenario: continue to hold shorts. We expect a fall to the level of 1600.
Recommendations for the gold market:
Sale: no. If you are in position from 1802, move your stop to 1768. Target: $1,600 a troy ounce.
Support — 1678. Resistance — 1728.
Growth scenario: the euro will be weak. Political instability may be added to economic problems. Until the energy crisis is overcome, the prospects for the European currency are few.
Fall scenario: we still hold shorts and wait for the fall to continue. Our target is 0.9700. It is possible that later we will see 0.8600.
Recommendations for the EUR/USD pair: Purchase: no.
Sale: no. Those in positions between 1.0350 and 1.0280 move the stop to 1.0220. Target: 0.9700.
Support — 0.9909. Resistance is 1.0035.
Growth scenario: the pair is locked in a range. We do not take the hint of growth seriously. To enter long, we need a move above the level of 62.00.
Fall scenario: let’s go short. The pair does not react in any way to the sanctions, which only strengthens the position of the ruble.
Recommendations for the dollar/ruble pair:
Purchase: in case of growth above 62.00. Stop: 59.00. Target: 74.00 rubles per dollar.
Sale: now. Stop: 61.00. Target: 56.60 (46.00?!) rubles per dollar.
Support — 59.61. Resistance is 60.89.
Growth scenario: consider the December futures, the expiration date is December 15th. The growth of national self-consciousness in our country is faster than the prospects for economic growth. The chart of the RTS index exudes patriotism and slight recklessness. Forced to respond to the emerging technical picture. If there is a rollback to 110,000, we will buy, although there are no fundamental reasons for the market to grow.
Fall scenario: going short in the current situation looks risky, but it is possible with a small level of risk.
Recommendations for the RTS index:
Purchase: on rollback to 110000. Stop: 106000. Target: 132000 points.
Sale: now. Stop: 118000. Target: 90000 pips.
Support — 110300. Resistance — 119230.
The recommendations in this article are NOT a direct guide for speculators and investors. All ideas and options for working on the markets presented in this material do NOT have 100% probability of execution in the future. The site does not take any responsibility for the results of deals.