Архив за 18 ноября, 2024

Grain market:

We have a jubilee: one dollar is 100 rubles. It’s no big deal, we’ve already been at these levels. What’s the difference between 120 rubles and 200 rubles per dollar? Why all this speculation and quotations? There are prices, they are in rubles. Live in peace, everything is fine.

Here’s to peace of mind. Hello!

This release was prepared with the direct participation of analysts from trading platforms eOil.ru and IDK.ru. Here is an assessment of the situation on the global and Russian markets.

During the last week wheat marked its aspiration to go to 500.0 on the Chicago Exchange. Quotes SRW decreased by 7% for the week on the background of a strongly strengthened dollar index, as well as amid concerns that China will buy less agricultural products in the United States. Note that the weakening ruble makes the purchase of Russian wheat more attractive, compared to other major suppliers. However, competition for the market with Brazil and Eastern Europe is not going anywhere. Labor is inexpensive in these regions. Nevertheless, prices will remain adequate and there will be enough market space for everyone, as demand will be at a high level. Below the 500.0 cents per bushel level, the US wheat market is not visible at the moment.

While for the U.S. the arguments about the decline in demand from China are relevant, however, it is their own fault, they should not have scared Beijing with sanctions and duties, for Russia and Kazakhstan it is a chance to get even deeper into China. This year, the supply of agricultural products to China from Russia has grown significantly: wheat by 100%, barley by 50%, pork by 30%, and there is growth in other items. The volumes are still small, but Beijing is turning its face towards us in this matter. China imports about 20 million tons of wheat and 15 million tons of barley every year, most of it from Australia and Canada, and in recent years it has started to take from the United States. Not a good geopolitical construct amid Trump’s announced trade war with Beijing. The prospect of increased confrontation with the West is forcing the Chinese to take more and more products from Russia.

Цены на индийскую пшеницу подскочили до рекордно высокого уровня из-за высокого спроса, ограниченных поставок и задержки в освобождении правительством запасов со складов для увеличения поставок, сообщили во вторник представители отрасли. Рекордные цены, скорее всего, поднимут розничную инфляцию, которая в октябре подскочила до 14-месячного максимума, вызванного скачком цен на овощи и разрушением надежд на снижение процентной ставки центральным банком в следующем месяце. Предложение на рынке ограничено, и поставщики не хотят отпускать пшеницу по более низким ценам. В сентябре Нью-Дели снизил лимит запасов пшеницы, которые могут держать трейдеры и мельники, чтобы помочь повысить доступность зерна и сдержать цены.

Ростовские аграрии в 2024 году засеяли отечественными семенами подсолнечника 54% от общей посевной площади культуры, в то время как в 2020 году этот показатель составлял 16,6%. Об этом сообщает региональный филиал Россельхозцентра.

Как отметили в ведомстве, по зерновым и зернобобовым культурам показатель использования российских семян почти достиг 100%, а по кукурузе — 60% против 40,4% четыре года назад.