Grain market:

How’s your health? And there’s still Christmas and the Old New Year ahead! Despite our best efforts over the holidays, stock prices for food remain low. Not good! Bad jaw work, comrades! Not eating enough. But there’s still time. Let’s support the markets!

To our limitless possibilities! Hello!

This release was prepared with the direct participation of analysts from trading platforms eOil.ru and IDK.ru. Here is an assessment of the situation on the global and Russian markets.

As expected, the bulls haven’t been able to come up with anything in the wheat market. There’s just a lot of it. This is something to accept and calm down. Exporting countries have persistently high inflation, which only creates the conditions for more competition for the end buyer in the foreign market. Traditional exporters will be happy that the labor of their citizens costs pennies, as they can gain more market share. They will lower prices. The harvest must be sold.

Currently America’s exports will be hurt by a strong dollar, so the US will only be able to sell its agricultural products to those who have their hands twisted in the basement. Also, Americans could be bailed out by China, not by Trump, but by Comrade Xi. If the Middle Kingdom doesn’t turn its back on Washington, then surplus corn, wheat and soybeans won’t be on the U.S. market. But US ending stocks are likely to rise. Comrade Xi has hinted unequivocally: Taiwan is China. And Washington believes that Taiwan is Taiwan. We see fundamental contradictions. So there will be sanctions packages in both directions.

Energy market:

Comrade Xi made a speech on New Year’s Day. We should listen to Comrade Xi, in translation for now, and then as it goes on. He illuminated the flexible path of the ancient sword with golden characters on red silk: China will be united, and no one can prevent it! What it means. A struggle for dominance with the United States. And it may not always be smart enough. But the scale of it. The idea of the Global South alone.

It is possible that as part of the global confrontation, the Arabs will be sold out by Washington and stop supplying oil to China. For Russia, this is just morning freshness, without any hint of South Korea. Since it is possible that when this happens, for example in mid-summer, India will have already been weaned off our hydrocarbons and we will be short of markets.

Brent prices have gone above 75 dollars per barrel amid falling oil inventories in the US. If they fall below the symbolic level of 400 million barrels, now 416 million barrels, then the formation of a long-term bullish trend is possible.

USD/RUB:

A ruble? Ah, yes, the ruble. For almost three years, the Russian military-industrial complex has been working day and night in three shifts for the NWO. This is due to the fact that substantial amounts of money from the budget are invested in production. The money in the budget comes from the sale of resources, emission and loans on the domestic market. External lending is not available to us.

Confrontation with the West is extremely expensive. The ruble will not be able to strengthen in the coming months even if oil prices go up, as the scale of spending boggles the imagination. The bill is easily in the trillions, when three years ago the entire Russian budget was $20 trillion. Now for one trillion dollars you can only buy a litter box for a kitten and that’s it.

As long as our resources are needed, we will see some trading on the pair. At least on the interbank market. The demand for the U.S. currency from companies against the background of sanctions is unlikely to be high, and the needs of citizens are insignificant compared to the demand of legal entities. Trading volumes will be low. The exchange rate will be prone to sharp jumps. The Central Bank rate will not make a big difference on this market.

Note that the dollar is very strong against other currencies in the world right now.

If Brent is above 75.00 and the current level of government spending is maintained, we are waiting for the pair to move towards 120.00 with periodic deep corrections. If oil falls below 70.00, we will just go up, without corrections.

Wheat No. 2 Soft Red. CME Group

Growth scenario: we consider the March contract, expiration date is March 14. The market continues to fall. We will meet it at 440.0 (380.0).

Downside scenario: it makes sense to keep selling. Those who wish can add to the shorts.

Recommendations for the wheat market:

Buy: no. Those who are in position from 533.0, move the stop to 524.0. Target: 650.0.

Sell: no. Those in position from 552.2, move stop to 553.6. Target: 440.0 (380.0).

Support — 437.2. Resistance — 568.6.

Corn No. 2 Yellow. CME Group

Growth scenario: we consider the March contract, expiration date is March 14. Friday’s fall does not look good for the bulls. Out of the market.

Downside scenario: let’s sell. The market is not easy, so you should not allocate a lot of money to it.

Recommendations for the corn market:

Buy: not yet.

Sell: Now (450.6). Stop: 462.0. Target: 380.0.

Support — 436.4. Resistance — 460.0.

Soybeans No. 1. CME Group

Growth scenario: switched to March futures, expiration date March 14. Nothing new. We are not thinking about buying while we are below 1020.0.

Downside scenario: sell. Soybeans are plentiful.

Recommendations for the soybean market:

Buy: when approaching 830.0. Stop: 815.0. Target: 1000.0.

Sell: Now (991.6). Stop: 1020. Target: 830.0.

Support — 982.2. Resistance — 1016.2.

Brent. ICE

Growth scenario: we consider the January futures, expiration date January 31. Here we can look for opportunities for long entry.

Downside scenario: out of the market for now. But, we note that the post-New Year’s move up may be false.

Recommendations for the Brent oil market:

Buy: on a pullback to 74.30. Stop: 73.80. Target: 90.00?!

Sale: no.

Support — 74.21. Resistance — 79.50.

WTI. CME Group

Growth scenario: we consider February futures, expiration date is January 21. We can buy on a pullback to 71.10. Those who are in positions can add on pullbacks.

Downside scenario: no sellers are seen yet. But they may appear if the US and China curtail trade between them.

Recommendations for WTI crude oil:

Buy: no. Those in position from 69.46, move stop to 70.40. Target: 80.00.

Sale: no.

Support — 71.04. Resistance — 76.37.

Gas-Oil. ICE

Growth scenario: we consider February futures, expiration date is February 10. You can buy on pullbacks. Do not forget to move stop orders along the trend.

Downside scenario: since we broke the falling channel upwards, we will be out of the market for now.

Gasoil Recommendations:

Buy: No. Those in position at 670.00, move your stop to 678.00. Target: 900.00?!

Sale: no.

Support — 696.00. Resistance — 727.00

Natural Gas. CME Group

Growth scenario: we consider February futures, expiration date is January 29. You can buy at these levels. But there is no sense to bet a lot. However, cold January in Europe may help.

Downside scenario: out of the market.

Natural Gas Recommendations:

Buy: now (3.354). Stop: 3.100. Target: 5.000?!

Sale: no.

Support at 3.274. Resistance at 3.544.

Diesel arctic fuel, ETP eOil.ru

Growth scenario: we remain out of the market for now.

Downside scenario: we will not sell anything. There is a constant risk of a sudden rise in prices.

Diesel Market Recommendations:

Buy: no.

Sale: no.

Support — 76963. Resistance — 89883.

Propane butane (Surgut), ETP eOil.ru

The growth scenario: “when approaching 6000, you must buy”, — we wrote earlier. You should be in the position. If not, you should take some now and wait for another fall (but there may not be one).

Downside scenario: there are no good levels for selling. Out of the market. Note that an approach to 22000 will force us to consider shorts.

PBT Market Recommendations:

Buy: on approach to 6000. Stop: 3600. Target: 19000. Those who are in the position from 7500, move the stop to 8000. Target: 30000.

Sale: no.

Support is 6016. Resistance is 19453.

Helium (Orenburg), ETP eOil.ru

Growth scenario: continue to refrain from buying.

Downside scenario: stay out of the market, prices are low.

Helium market recommendations:

Buy: no.

Sale: no.

Support — 812. Resistance is 947.

Gold. COMEX

Growth scenario: we consider the February futures, expiration date February 26. So far, our forecast that the dollar will be strong is confirmed. Don’t buy.

Downside scenario: knocked out of the sale by stop order. Let’s enter again.

Gold Market Recommendations:

Buy: no.

Sale: now (2654). Stop: 2684. Target: 2120. Count the risks!

Support — 2598. Resistance — 2682.

EUR/USD

Growth scenario: it will be extremely difficult to go below 0.9900. If the pair will be in that area, we will buy.

Downside scenario: there is no sense in opening new shorts. We keep the old positions down.

Recommendations on euro/dollar pair:

Buy: when approaching 0.9900. Stop: 0.9800. Target: 1.1000.

Sell: no. Those who are in position from 1.0429, move the stop to 1.0420. Target: 0.9900.

Support — 1.0117. Resistance — 1.0462.

USD/RUB

Growth scenario: we consider March futures, expiration date March 20. There is some uncertainty. We need either a pullback or growth above 109000 to buy.

Downside scenario: those who want to sell can sell now. Those who are in position, keep shorts.

Recommendations on dollar/ruble pair:

Buy: think after rising above 109000.

Sell: no. Who is in position from 106300, move your stop to 107300. Target: 98000?!!!

Support — 102596. Resistance — 107234.

RTSI. MOEX

Growth scenario: we consider March futures, expiration date March 20. It is difficult to bet on market growth. It will be even more difficult if we see a further fall in inflation. We remember the Central Bank rate of 21%.

Downside scenario: technically we should sell here. And don’t think. It’s not good to think too much.

Recommendations on the RTS index:

Buy: only when you approach 60,000

Sale: now (87680). Stop: 93000. Target: 60000.

Support — 85230. Resistance — 94550.

The recommendations in this article are NOT a direct guide for speculators and investors. All ideas and options for working on the markets presented in this material do NOT have 100% probability of execution in the future. The site does not take any responsibility for the results of deals.

Previous report