Price forecast from 13 to 17 of March 2023
13 March 2023, 12:52
In America, the one that consists of various states, the 18th bank in terms of capitalization collapsed. Yes, he just got up in the morning and immediately died. Unfortunate citizens rushed to withdraw deposits, but they were not given anything, but they will give it back later, we note this, for the sake of justice. Everything’s under control. Everything is fine. The Silicon Valley Bank invested in all sorts of stuff from bearded youths. We are here with our mouths open in surprise. We look forward to continuing.
If you are given Indian rupees instead of flyers on the street, don’t be surprised. Take rupees. They just have nowhere to go. Hello!
This issue has been prepared with the direct participation of analysts from eOil.ru and IDK.ru trading platforms. Here an assessment of the situation in the world and Russian markets is given.
In February, 3.7 million tons of grain crops were shipped for export, which is 35% more than in February last year. During the last winter month, wheat sailed across the seas in the amount of 3 million tons. Turkey, Egypt, Pakistan, Algeria and Kenya are actively buying from us. Turks and Egyptians are increasingly buying wheat for rubles, well done, keep it up.
FOB Russian wheat prices fell below $300 per ton. The pressure on prices is exerted by the grain remaining with farmers. Further price reduction is possible, but it will most likely be limited to $285 per ton.
It should be noted that next season the world may experience a fall in the gross grain harvest due to the fact that the supply of Russian fertilizers was blocked by the West. Deviation from production technology can lead to a significant drop in yields in a number of countries.
Reading our forecasts, you could make money on the eOil.ru platform by buying arctic diesel fuel at 57,000 and selling it at 67,000 rubles per ton. Somewhat earlier, it was possible to sell diesel at 84,000 rubles per ton and buy it again at 59,000 rubles per ton. It was also possible to make money on the helium market by taking a move up from 1,800 to 3,000 rubles per cubic meter.
The world hegemon allowed European oil traders to work with Russian oil. More precisely, he did not forbid it, but the intermediaries hurried to refuse our goods themselves. And then suddenly calls from across the ocean, they say, do not be afraid of anything. But we know that it is a sin for the United States, one wrong move and a fine of 10 billion dollars can be imposed on any company. Simply because they saw something on the other side of the pond.
Russia continues to increase supplies to India and China. It may turn out that Moscow will grow together with Delhi and Beijing, and Europe will be forced to pay Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar and Libya. It is interesting what all sorts of Paris will do with London, and Berlin with Vienna, when in the Middle East, against the background of simply indecent financial injections, the ego of sheikhs and princes will grow so much that friction will resume over who interprets ancient scriptures more competently and correctly. And who, in principle, is worthy of expressing their position, that is, opening their mouths. It may happen that Europe will not survive even a slight confrontation in the Arab world.
For once, a great Briton, of Hindu origin, visited Paris. Franco-English summit, wow, how interesting it sounds in Russian, and so, the summit has passed. The great leaders of either free or windy in all respects Europe measured each other with their eyes and swore to be friends against Russia.
When the partners in costumes, but in fact beautiful photos turned out, the hundred-year war will begin again, of course, Moscow will provide assistance to both countries, based only on humanitarian considerations.
Next week on Thursday, the ECB will have its say on the rate. Most likely it will be raised by 0.5%. On Friday there will be a meeting of the Bank of Russia at which the rate can also be raised by 0.5%, provided that Nabiullina sees the risks of inflation acceleration.
Given that the ruble is not strengthening, we can assume that prices for imported goods will continue to rise, although this process will proceed at a moderate pace.
From what is happening in the foreign exchange market breathes longing. The ruble cannot strengthen against the dollar at least by 72.50. It stands near the local maximum at 76.50 and tends to further weakening. Marks at the top: 80, 84 and 88 rubles per dollar. Note that the rise in oil prices may not provide significant support to the ruble due to sanctions.
Wheat No. 2 Soft Red. CME Group
Growth scenario: consider the May futures, the expiration date is May 12. The current area is interesting for shopping. The bulls have two months before the May USDA report in order to lift the market by 10%.
Fall scenario: The market has fulfilled the targets at the bottom. There is no point in selling. Out of the market.
Recommendations for the wheat market:
Purchase: now. Stop: 650.0. Target: 770.0. Who is in position from 670.0, keep the stop at 650.0. Target: 770.0.
Support — 661.2. Resistance is 721.0.
Growth scenario: consider the May futures, the expiration date is May 12. We will continue to refuse to enter the long position in corn. There is a lot of fodder grain. For a good entry, we need levels around 550.0 cents per bushel.
Fall scenario: continue to hold shorts. Perhaps in the near future there will be an attempt to go above 640.0, but it will most likely fail.
Recommendations for the corn market:
Sale: no. Who is in position from 688.0, move the stop to 663.0. Target: 550.0 cents per bushel.
Support — 598.6. Resistance is 636.0.
Soybeans No. 1. CME Group
Growth scenario: consider the May futures, the expiration date is May 12. We don’t buy. The levels are too high to go long.
Fall scenario: Worth holding shorts with distant targets at 1,000 cents per bushel. Soy is very much.
Recommendations for the soybean market:
Sale: now. Stop: 1547.0. Target: 1000.0. Those who are in positions from 1540.0 and 1530.0 keep the stop at 1547.0. Target: 1000.0 cents per bushel.
Support — 1472.4. Resistance — 1538.6.
We’re looking at the volume of open interest of managers. You should keep in your mind that these are data from three days ago (for Tuesday of the past week), they are also the most recent of those published by the ICE exchange.
At the moment, there are more open long positions of asset managers than short ones. Buyers control the market. Over the past week, the difference between long and short positions of managers increased by 12.1 thousand contracts. Buyers entered the market. Sellers did not show any activity. The spread between long and short positions widened. Bulls are in control.
Growth scenario: we consider the March futures, the expiration date is March 31. The market is holding above the 80.00 level. The market is in equilibrium. Neither side has an advantage.
Fall scenario: until we fall below the level of 80.00 we will not sell. We can say that the car season is already starting in Europe. Demand for fuel should rise.
Recommendations for the Brent oil market:
Purchase: after rising above 86.00. Stop: 81.40. Target: 110.0.
Sale: after falling below 80.00. Stop: 84.30. Target: 70.00.
Support — 80.42. Resistance is 86.81.
WTI. CME Group
US fundamental data: the number of active drilling rigs decreased by 2 units and amounts to 590 units.
Commercial oil reserves in the US fell by -1.694 to 478.513 million barrels, while the forecast was +0.395 million barrels. Inventories of gasoline fell -1.134 to 238.058 million barrels. Distillate inventories rose by 0.138 to 122.252 million barrels. Inventories at Cushing fell -0.89 to 39.828 million barrels.
Oil production fell by -0.1 to 12.2 million barrels per day. Oil imports rose by 0.063 to 6.271 million barrels per day. Oil exports fell by -2.267 to 3.362 million barrels per day. Thus, net oil imports rose by 2.33 to 2.909 million barrels per day. Oil refining increased by 0.2 to 86 percent.
Gasoline demand fell by -0.55 to 8.562 million barrels per day. Gasoline production fell by -0.173 to 9.557 million barrels per day. Gasoline imports fell by -0.226 to 0.446 million barrels per day. Gasoline exports rose by 0.18 to 0.831 million barrels per day.
Demand for distillates fell by -0.321 to 3.514 million barrels. Distillate production fell -0.084 to 4.525 million barrels. Distillate imports fell -0.056 to 0.141 million barrels. Distillate exports rose by 0.187 to 1.132 million barrels per day.
Demand for petroleum products fell by -1.364 to 19.049 million barrels. Oil products production fell by -0.538 to 20.704 million barrels. Imports of petroleum products increased by 0.252 to 2.106 million barrels. The export of oil products increased by 0.511 to 6.01 million barrels per day.
Propane demand fell by -0.109 to 1.234 million barrels. Propane production increased by 0.032 to 2.414 million barrels. Propane imports fell -0.019 to 0.121 million barrels. Propane exports fell by -0.194 to 1.377 million barrels per day.
Growth scenario: we are considering the April futures, the expiration date is March 21. If prices rise above 81.50, open long. While we remain out of the market.
Fall scenario: market in a range. Neither bulls nor bears have an advantage. We will sell only after falling below 74.00.
Recommendations for WTI oil:
Purchase: after rising above 81.50. Stop: 77.40. Target: 110.00.
Sale: after falling below 74.00. Stop: 78.30. Target: 66.00 (55.00) dollars per barrel.
Support — 74.74. Resistance — 80.78.
Growth scenario: we are considering the April futures, the expiration date is April 12. It makes sense to buy again. In Europe, the real situation with fuel can be much worse than the declared ones.
Fall scenario: while we are in the falling channel, we will not close shorts. If there is a drop in prices, this one will be a little surprise in this situation.
Purchase: now. Stop: 760.0. Target: 1100.0.
Sale: no. Who is in position from 900.0, keep the stop at 870.0. Target: 670.0.
Support — 770.75. Resistance is 857.50.
Natural Gas. CME Group
Growth scenario: we are considering the April futures, the expiration date is March 29. Let’s continue to keep the previously opened long. The move to the 3.500 area looks natural after a long fall. Those who wish can use the current rollback to enter a long position.
Fall scenario: if the market rises to the level of 4.100, then it will be possible to talk about sales.
Recommendations for natural gas:
Purchase: now. Stop: 2.330. Target: 4.000. Who is in a position from 2.200 keep a stop at 2.330. Target: 4.000.
Sale: think when approaching 4.100.
Support — 2.108. Resistance is 3.052.
Arctic diesel fuel (Surgut), ETP eOil.ru
Growth scenario: you could buy from 57000 following our recommendations. Against the backdrop of US calls for oil traders to work with Russia, one can expect an increase in quotations within the country. You can also buy at current levels.
Fall scenario: Our calls last week to «don’t be greedy» proved true. I had to get rid of the shorts. All with a profit. We take a break for a week. There are no good levels for sales now.
Diesel market recommendations:
Purchase: now. Stop: 53,000. Target: 72,000. Who took profit last week from 57,000 to 67,000 can buy again.
Support — 55625. Resistance — 68633.
Propane butane (Surgut), ETP eOil.ru
Growth scenario: you can buy at current levels. The market is able to grow up to 7500 rubles per ton.
Fall scenario: we will continue to refuse sales. Prices are low.
Recommendations for the PBT market:
Purchase: now. Stop: 1100. Target: 7500 rubles per ton.
Support — 884. Resistance — 4912.
Helium (Orenburg), ETP eOil.ru
Growth scenario: The market rallies. We quickly climbed above 3000, which was somewhat of a surprise. Buyers can take profits and take a break for a week.
Fall scenario: in case of a red daily candle, you can sell. The market is overbought, there should be a rollback to at least the level of 2700.
Recommendations for the helium market:
Sale: when a red daily candle appears. Stop above its maximum. Target: 2700 (2300) rubles per cubic meter.
Support — 2676. Resistance — 3543.
Gold. CME Group
Growth scenario: Given the fall of the bank in the US, we can assume that we will reach 1890, but we will not be able to rise higher, since the Fed has not finished raising rates.
Fall scenario: we will continue to hold the short from 1920 while moving the target down from 1790 to 1730. When approaching 1900, we can increase the shorts.
Recommendations for the gold market:
Purchase: think when approaching 1730.
Sale: approaching 1900. Stop: 1920. Target: 1730. Those in position from 1920, move the stop to 1920. Target: $1,730 a troy ounce.
Support — 1808. Resistance — 1890.
Growth scenario: the euro may rise to 1.0800 on Thursday, but it will not go higher, since on March 22 there will be a Fed meeting, at which the rate, like in Europe, will be raised by 0.5%. For a good long entry, I would like to see the level of 1.0100.
Fall scenario: we continue to hold shorts, counting on a fall to at least 1.0480. The move to 1.0100 will also continue to be considered as very probable.
Recommendations for the EUR/USD pair:
Purchase: think when approaching 1.0480. From 1.0100 it is obligatory to buy.
Sale: no. Who is in position from 1.0690, keep the stop at 1.0830. Target: 1.0480 (1.0120).
Support — 1.0477. Resistance is 1.0698.
Growth scenario: the chances of falling to 72.50 are minimal, but they are. If the market goes above 76.60, then you will have to buy at inflated prices, since you cannot miss the move to 88.00.
Fall scenario: you can sell at current levels. The chances for the dollar to fall against the ruble remain.
Recommendations for the dollar/ruble pair:
Purchase: think when approaching 72.50. Stop: 71.00 Target: 88.00. Or after rising above 76.70. Stop: 73.40. Target: 88.00.
Sale: now. Stop: 76.70. Target: 72.50 (65.50). Who is in position from 75.80, keep the stop at 76.70. Target: 72.50 (65.50).
Support — 74.035. Resistance — 83.15.
Growth scenario: we are considering the June futures, the expiration date is June 15. There were no significant changes in the market during the week. We continue to remain in the falling channel. While we are below the level of 100,000 we will not buy.
Fall scenario: those who wish can sell at current levels. There are serious concerns that Sberbank’s optimistic 22-year report will end this year’s good news.
Recommendations for the RTS index:
Purchase: think after rising above the 100000 level.
Sale: now. Stop: 101000. Target: 80000 (50000, then 20000) points. Who is in position from 106000, 103000, 101000 and 98000, keep the stop at 101000. Target: 80000 (50000, then 20000) points.
Support — 94920. Resistance — 98470.
The recommendations in this article are NOT a direct guide for speculators and investors. All ideas and options for working on the markets presented in this material do NOT have 100% probability of execution in the future. The site does not take any responsibility for the results of deals.