Grain market:

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This release was prepared with the direct participation of analysts of trading platforms eOil.ru and IDK.ru. It provides an assessment of the situation on the global and Russian market.

It is possible that next week the grain market will react to the US attacks on Syria by increasing prices, but we are unlikely to see strong movements as the Middle East is not a place where wheat grows on a planetary scale. Due to the good harvests of the last two years, all processors’ needs are met for several months ahead. Farmers in Europe are on strike for a reason, they realize that if things go quietly, they will slip into deep overproduction and will not be able to survive without government support at low prices.

Corn on the background of stabilization of the weather situation in South America does not want to grow and does not allow wheat to rise. It is not excluded that in a week we will see a strong report from USDA, which will nail prices by the end of February.

One must realize, and we do, that grocery inflation around the world has led to more frugal and wasteful food consumption, which should lead to strong inventory growth, above analysts’ expectations, by the end of the 23/24 season.

Energy market:

U.S. strikes on the territory of Syria in response to an attack on an American military base may lead to a serious escalation in the near future. It is expensive to fight, so if the conflict escalates, America will get an increase in military spending and the Middle East region will sink into an even greater depression than it is now. This is bad for business. However, as long as the oil fields are not affected, the hostilities will not affect oil prices.

OPEC members to return to the issue of production cuts in March. So far, the cartel and Russia remain committed to reducing supply to the market. At the same time, we do not see prices rising, which suggests that OPEC+ may have to further reduce supply on the market, as traders are not impressed by forecasts that demand for oil will increase in the near future. Yes, it may happen, but in fact Brent has gone below 80.00 and is bidding to visit 70.00.

USD/RUB:

If the G7 countries do issue bonds against confiscated Russian assets to raise funds to help Ukraine, so you can write «confiscated» rather than «frozen», it will put a heavy strain on the Russian budget, simply because the fighting will continue with great intensity and it will be necessary to find somewhere to find resources to support the army.

All last week the ruble was losing ground. From a technical point of view, we can now start strengthening against the dollar, but fundamentally the situation is weak, including because of the SWO and the beginning of the oil price decline.

Wheat No. 2 Soft Red. CME Group

Let’s look at the volumes of open interest in Wheat. You should take into account that this is three days old data (for Tuesday of last week), but it is also the most recent data published by CME Group.

At the moment there are more open short positions of asset managers than long ones. Over the past week the difference between long and short positions of asset managers decreased by 2.7 thousand contracts. There were buyers, sellers entered the market in microscopic volumes. Bears keep control.

Growth scenario: we consider March futures, expiration date March 14. We hold long. There are doubts in the market strength, so we do not open new purchases. We keep the old longs.

Downside scenario: it is worth recognizing that corn can drag the market down. However, do not sell, there are too many support levels below.

Recommendations for the wheat market:

Buy: no. Who is in position from 580.0, keep stop at 560.0. Target: 700.0.

Sale: no.

Support — 584.4. Resistance — 611.6.

 

Corn No. 2 Yellow. CME Group

Let’s look at the volumes of open interest in Corn. You should take into account that this data is three days old (for Tuesday of last week), it is also the most recent of those published by the CME Group exchange.

At the moment there are more open short positions of asset managers than long ones. During the past week the difference between long and short positions of asset managers increased by 4.1 th. contracts. Both buyers and sellers entered the market in small volumes. Bears strengthened their advantage.

Growth scenario: we consider the March futures, expiration date March 14. The idea of visiting the level of 420.0 continues to live. Waiting.

Downside scenario: the probability of a move to 420.0 remains. Keep shorting.

Recommendations for the corn market:

Buy: when approaching 420.0. Stop: 407.0. Target: 600.0.

Sell: no. Who is in position from 470.0, keep stop at 456.0. Target: 422.0.

Support — 436.2. Resistance — 448.6.

Soybeans No. 1. CME Group

Growth scenario: we consider the March futures, expiration date March 14. Nothing new. We continue to refrain from buying. There’s a lot of soybeans. We broke 1200, we’re going to 1150.

Downside scenario: we will continue to keep shorting. Lower levels are also possible. Here we can build up the previously opened short.

Recommendations for the soybean market:

Buy: not yet.

Sell: no. Those in position from 1295.0, move your stop to 1228.0. Target: 1000.0?!

Support — 1144.6. Resistance — 1201.7.

Brent. ICE

Let’s look at the open interest volumes for Brent. You should take into account that this is three days old data (for Tuesday of last week), and it is also the most recent data published by the ICE exchange.

At the moment there are more open long positions of asset managers than short ones. Over the past week the difference between long and short positions of asset managers increased by 53.9 thousand contracts. The change is significant. Buyers actively entered the market, sellers ran in small volumes. Bulls keep the advantage.

Growth scenario: we switched to February futures, expiration date is February 29. Behind the bullish attempts to grow in fact there was nothing. Out of the market.

Downside scenario: yes, I want to short, but now it is better to wait for a fall below 76.20. This week we do nothing.

Recommendations for the Brent oil market:

Buy: no.

Sale: no.

Support — 76.26. Resistance — 79.28.

WTI. CME Group

US fundamental data: the number of active drilling rigs is unchanged at 499.

U.S. commercial oil inventories rose 1.234 to 421.912 million barrels, against a forecast of -0.217 million barrels. Gasoline inventories rose 1.157 to 254.134 million barrels. Distillate stocks fell -2.541 to 130.795 million barrels. Cushing storage stocks fell by -1.972 to 28.094 mln barrels.

Oil production increased by 0.7 to 13 mln barrels per day. Oil imports increased by 0.025 to 5.605 mln barrels per day. Oil exports fell by -0.54 to 3.894 million barrels per day. Thus, net oil imports rose by 0.565 to 1.711 million barrels per day. Oil refining fell by -2.6 to 82.9 percent.

Gasoline demand increased by 0.264 mb/d to 8.144 mb/d. Gasoline production rose 0.956 to 9.281 million barrels per day. Gasoline imports fell -0.228 to 0.4 million barrels per day. Gasoline exports rose 0.316 to 1.033 million barrels per day.

Distillate demand fell -0.027 to 3.757 million barrels. Distillate production fell by -0.115 to 4.385 million barrels. Distillate imports fell -0.063 to 0.138 million barrels. Distillate exports rose -0.009 to 1.129 million barrels per day.

Demand for petroleum products increased by 0.563 to 20.119 mln barrels. Production of petroleum products increased by 1.048 to 20.827 mln barrels. Petroleum product imports rose 0.05 to 1.671 million barrels. Exports of petroleum products fell -0.404 to 5.925 million barrels per day.

Propane demand increased by 0.404 to 1.931 mln barrels. Propane production increased by 0.187 to 2.428 million barrels. Propane imports rose 0.036 to 0.141 million barrels. Propane exports rose 0.037 to 0.096 million barrels per day.

Let’s look at the WTI open interest volumes. You should take into account that this is three-day old data (for Tuesday of last week), and it is also the most recent data published by the CME Group exchange.

At the moment there are more open long positions of asset managers than short ones. Over the past week the difference between long and short positions of asset managers increased by 15.8 th. contracts. Sellers were fleeing. Buyers entered the market in small volumes. Bulls increased their control.

Growth scenario: we consider March futures, expiration date is February 20. Growth did not take place. Out of the market.

Downside scenario: the market is frozen in an uncertain position. Out of the market.

Recommendations for WTI crude oil:

Buy: no.

Sale: no.

Support — 70.53. Resistance — 75.18.

Gas-Oil. ICE

Growth scenario: we consider the March futures, expiration date March 12. A sharp pullback down. We hold the previously opened purchases, do not open new ones.

Downside scenario: sellers are not convincing. Off-market.

Gasoil Recommendations:

Buy: no. Who is in position from 800.0 and 830.00, keep stop at 770.00. Target: 1200.00.

Sale: no.

Support — 787.00. Resistance — 858.50.

Natural Gas. CME Group

Growth scenario: we consider March futures, expiration date February 27. We continue to press the area of 2,000. Out of the market for now.

Downside scenario: we will continue to keep short in the expectation of a deeper dive. Probably to 1.500.

Natural Gas Recommendations:

Buy: no.

Sell: no. Those in position from 2.570, move stop to 2.210. Target: 1.500 (revised).

Support — 2.028. Resistance — 2.336.

Diesel arctic fuel, ETP eOil.ru

Growth scenario: continue to stay out of the market. Prices are too high for interesting purchases.

Downside scenario: we will continue shorting. We have a target at 65000, those who need money can still reduce part of the position.

Diesel Market Recommendations:

Buy: no.

Sell: No. Who is in position from 90300, move stop to 87000. Target: 65000. You can close another 25% of positions at 76500.

Support — 73359. Resistance — 83223.

Propane butane (Surgut), ETP eOil.ru

Growth scenario: buying from current levels is possible, but it is better to wait until the market either falls to 10000 or rises above 20000.

Downside scenario: shorting from 23000 is still interesting. Those who have already entered, keep holding positions.

PBT Market Recommendations:

Buy: not yet.

Sell: no. Who is in position from 22500, keep stop at 22000. Target: 15000.

Support — 15000. Resistance — 20273.

Helium (Orenburg), ETP eOil.ru

Growth scenario: went below 2700, which is unexpected. We take a pause for a week, but when approaching 2100 we must buy.

Downside scenario: stay out of the market, prices are low.

Helium market recommendations:

Buy: when approaching 2100. Stop: 1900. Target: 5000.

Sale: no.

Support — 2656 (2094). Resistance — 3188.

Gold. CME Group

Growth scenario: the market is at equilibrium. Refrain from any deals.

Downside scenario: it is difficult to say something about this situation. Off-market.

Gold Market Recommendations:

Buy: no.

Sale: no.

Support — 2026. Resistance — 2065.

EUR/USD

Growth scenario: we continue to count on touching the level of 1.0720. The US Fed, as well as the ECB earlier, left the rate unchanged, for America it is 5.5%.

Downside scenario: we continue to keep shorting. There is a prospect of a move to 1.0720.

Recommendations on euro/dollar pair:

Buy: when approaching 1.0720. Stop: 1.0620. Target: 1.2000.

Sell: no. Those who are in position from 1.1050, move the stop to 1.0920. Target: 1.0720 (1.0000?!).

Support — 1.0716. Resistance — 1.0900.

USD/RUB

Growth scenario: in case of growth above 91.60, 97.00 mark will open. Out of the market for now.

Downside scenario: a long shadow knocked us out of the short. Let’s try to enter the short again.

Recommendations on dollar/ruble pair:

Buy: after growth above 91.60. Stop: 89.40. Target: 97.00 (120.00?!).

Sell: now (91.05). Stop: 92.20. Target: 85.00 (80.00).

Support — 89.71. Resistance — 93.30.

RTSI

Growth scenario: we consider March futures, expiration date March 21. A rise to 125000? Yes, there is a small chance, but it would be better for us to grow above 115000. Then a large number of bulls will believe in the growth.

Downside scenario: implicit sale. But if you sell, then it is convenient to add 110000.

Recommendations on the RTS index:

Buy: now (112450). Stop: 111400. Target: 124750. Those who are in the position from 112000, move the stop to 111400. Target: 124750.

Sale: now. Stop: 113700. Target: 103000. Add after falling below 110000.

Support — 111690. Resistance — 113940.

The recommendations in this article are NOT a direct guide for speculators and investors. All ideas and options for working on the markets presented in this material do NOT have 100% probability of execution in the future. The site does not take any responsibility for the results of deals.

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