Have you seen the carnivals in South America, the colorful parades in the United States and European countries? If not, it’s not a big deal. Just look at the behavior of politicians over the last month. In a sense, they are also minorities, and they too must be protected somehow… from each other.

To reasonable tolerance. Hello!

This release was prepared with the direct participation of analysts from trading platforms eOil.ru and IDK.ru. Here is an assessment of the situation on the global and Russian markets.

Grain market:

Political chatter in various important cities gives rise to hope for some kind of peaceful and safe dealings and the market reacts to this, but in fact nothing is moving anywhere. There is a strong feeling that the parties: Russia and the West have taken a course of mutual exhaustion, which may lead to a drop in economic activity in the world. No one will do anything but sharpen the tomahawk and gallop into the night.

In this situation, the demand for agricultural products will not fall, although it will undergo a number of changes due to increased demand from the military industry for a number of components: cotton, oilseeds, beef (for canned food). Cereal prices will not gravitate upward, as supply will be at a high level. The current drop could take us to the 500.0 level for wheat and 380 for corn.

What’s going on in Africa? This may not sound politically correct, but we’re having an economic review here, not a session in a sterile parliament, Africans should be forced to work in the fields. And you know, as mechanization increases, they will do it themselves. They will take themselves out to the fields and plow, no, not on themselves, on tractors. The process of normal (European) farming can spread from South Africa to other regions. Yes, the Boers have been there for a long time, but the rest of us prefer only to eat what these Boers (Dutch colonists) produce. That being said, they are periodically beaten and kicked out of South Africa, but afterward yields drop immediately. Perhaps the process will be broken and harmony will somehow be found. Note that if Africa rises agriculturally, there will be nowhere to put the grain. This is true.

Energy market:

Brent failed to rise above 75.00 despite the fact that Washington began to reshape the hydrocarbon market. Venezuelan and Iranian oil are recognized as undesirable. It would not be a bad idea under these circumstances to be labeled that Russian oil is kosher. And why not.

The energy mix looks interesting. Apparently it will come to the point where Europe will produce weapons for “defense against Russia”, buying Russian oil and gas. After which the two sides will relegate themselves… to paradise, of course. It’s a bad scenario, but it’s worth re-reading the header of this forecast.

In general, no one is expecting anything good. The question is “when.” When the economy collapses. China, as a regime territory built up with human columns, will long deny it, but apparently it will be the first. In general, the US-Europe-China triangle has already started to vibrate badly. It is possible that we are beginning to see the beginning of the end for the next three years. And then… and then, of course, everything will be better than before.

USD/RUB:

There are very strong suspicions that the ruble appreciation cycle has come to an end. In fact, Russia is unable to find a compromise with the West, which is much more resolute now than it was three years ago. Even if expenditures on the military-industrial complex and defense industry remain at the current level, this will gradually lead to a fall of the national currency. In case of a blockade of commodity supplies, or a banal refusal of countries to buy Russian raw materials, the ruble’s history in the current situation will be short and sad.

The Central Bank of the Russian Federation will not raise the rate further, as it will simply kill the real sector. Which, however, is already happening. The day is not far off when the Central Bank will change its leadership, Nabiullina will be blamed for all the current failures, and then someone will be put in the chair and uncontrolled emission will start. This is what will happen if it is impossible to stop the active phase of the SWO. We have nothing to do but watch the politicians along with everyone else.

Wheat No. 2 Soft Red. CME Group

Let’s look at the volumes of open interest in Wheat. You should take into account that this is three days old data (for Tuesday of last week), but it is also the most recent data published by CME Group.

At the moment there are more open short positions of asset managers than long ones. Over the past week the difference between long and short positions of asset managers increased by 11.5 th. contracts. There were no buyers. Sellers were entering the market. Bears are controlling the situation.

Growth scenario: we consider the May contract, expiration date May 14. We have set a medium-term low. We are waiting for an approach to 500.0.

Downside scenario: started to run out of steam. It is worth keeping short. When reaching 500.0 it makes sense to close only 50% of the position. The mark of 450.0 is not excluded.

Recommendations for the wheat market:

Buy: obligatory when approaching 500.0. Stop: 400.0. Target: 700.0. Add when approaching 450.0. Consider the risks.

Sell: no. Who is in position from 558.2, move the stop to 562.0. Target: 500.0 (450.0).

Support — 499.4. Resistance — 552.0.

Corn No. 2 Yellow. CME Group

Let’s look at the volumes of open interest in Corn. You should take into account that this data is three days old (for Tuesday of last week), it is also the most recent of those published by the CME Group exchange.

At the moment there are more open long positions of asset managers than short ones. During the past week the difference between long and short positions of asset managers decreased by 30.5 th. contracts. Buyers continued to leave the market. Sellers arrived for the fourth week in a row. Bulls may lose control in the near future.

Growth scenario: we consider the May contract, expiration date May 14. Corn failed and does not look attractive for buying, despite the bullish candle on Friday. Out of the market.

Downside scenario: continue to want 380.0. Deeper levels? Perhaps 350.0.

Recommendations for the corn market:

Buy: no.

Sell: no. Who is in the position from 470.0, move the stop to 468.0. Target: 380.0 (350.0).

Support — 442.2. Resistance — 470.2.

Soybeans No. 1. CME Group

Growth scenario: we consider the May contract, expiration date May 14. Soybean unexpectedly turned around. Only a pullback to 1005.0 will allow us to hold on to the long.

Downside scenario: where is the downside? Since we went up, we take a pause for a week. However, if the market has time to grow, we will make another attempt to sell from 1040.0.

Recommendations for the soybean market:

Buy: on a pullback to 1005.0. Stop: 994.0. Target: 1200.0?!

Sell: on approach to 1040.0. Stop: 1065.0. Target: 880.0. Consider the risks.

Support — 991.2. Resistance — 1040.4.

Brent. ICE

Let’s look at the open interest volumes for Brent. You should take into account that this is three days old data (for Tuesday of last week), and it is also the most recent data published by the ICE exchange.

At the moment there are more open long positions of asset managers than short ones. Over the past week the difference between long and short positions of asset managers increased by 55.5 thousand contracts. Bulls have been actively entering the market for 2 weeks in a row. There were no bears. Bulls are strengthening their control.

Growth scenario: we consider April futures, expiration date April 30. Buying ideas from the depths are not relevant at the moment, and it is premature to buy on upward spurts. Off-market.

Downside scenario: despite US attempts to remove Venezuela’s oil from the market, we will continue to recommend selling. Oil prices are unlikely to rise amid expectations of a decline in the EU and US economies.

Recommendations for the Brent oil market:

Buy: when approaching 63.50. Stop: 62.00. Target: 72.00.

Sell: no. Who is in position from 73.00 and 71.61, keep stop at 74.70. Target: 63.50.

Support — 71.67. Resistance — 73.48.

WTI. CME Group

US fundamental data: the number of active drilling rigs decreased by 2 units to 484.

U.S. commercial oil inventories fell by -3.341 to 433.627 million barrels, with a forecast of +1.5 million barrels. Gasoline inventories fell -1.446 to 239.128 million barrels. Distillate stocks fell -0.421 to 114.362 million barrels. Cushing storage stocks fell by -0.755 to 22.705 million barrels.

Oil production increased by 0.001 to 13.574 million barrels per day. Oil imports increased by 0.81 to 6.195 million barrels per day. Oil exports fell by -0.035 to 4.609 million barrels per day. Thus, net oil imports rose by 0.845 to 1.586 million barrels per day. Oil refining rose by 0.1 to 87 percent.

Gasoline demand fell -0.174 to 8.643 million barrels per day. Gasoline production fell -0.401 to 9.222 million barrels per day. Gasoline imports fell -0.068 to 0.589 million barrels per day. Gasoline exports fell -0.229 to 0.665 million barrels per day.

Distillate demand fell -0.374 to 3.636 million barrels. Distillate production fell -0.1 to 4.513 million barrels. Distillate imports fell -0.137 to 0.12 million barrels. Distillate exports fell -0.204 to 1.057 million barrels per day.

Demand for petroleum products fell by -0.18 to 19.237 million barrels. Petroleum products production rose by 0.122 to 20.58 million barrels. Petroleum product imports fell -0.094 to 1.586 million barrels. Exports of refined products fell -0.838 to 6.122 million barrels per day.

Propane demand increased by 0.16 to 1.091 million barrels. Propane production rose 0.04 to 2.755 million barrels. Propane imports fell -0.001 to 0.137 million barrels. Propane exports fell -0.366 to 1.828 million barrels per day.

Let’s look at the WTI open interest volumes. You should take into account that this is three-day old data (for Tuesday of last week), and it is also the most recent data published by the CME Group exchange.

At the moment there are more open long positions of asset managers than short ones. During the past week the difference between long and short positions of asset managers increased by 1 thousand contracts. Buyers and sellers entered the market, in equal insignificant volumes. Bulls keep control.

Growth scenario: we consider May futures, expiration date April 22. We are waiting for more interesting points for water in long. So far out of the market.

Downside scenario: it makes sense to keep shorting. The situation is such that oil from Venezuela, Iran and Russia can be replaced on the external market, albeit not quickly. And there is also LNG, which has nowhere to go.

Recommendations for WTI crude oil:

Buy: no.

Sell: no. Who is in position from 70.00 and 68.28, keep stop at 72.30. Target: 59.05.

Support — 64.87. Resistance — 70.17.

Gas-Oil. ICE

Growth scenario: we consider April futures, expiration date is April 9. We continue to believe that we should wait for the downward momentum to fully work out, which will probably happen at 580.0.

Downside scenario: it was possible to get a hold on the short. Now it should be held. A drop in consumption is possible against the backdrop of a slowdown in the global economy.

Gasoil Recommendations:

Buy: when approaching 580.0. Stop: 570.0. Target: 680.0.

Sell: no. Those who are in position from 680.0, move the stop to 720.0. Target: 580.00. Add when approaching 700.0. Count the risks.

Support — 639.50. Resistance — 684.50

Natural Gas. CME Group

Growth scenario: we consider the May futures, expiration date April 28. Pullback, but we would like to get 3.200 for a new long. We are waiting for lower levels. Summer is ahead.

Downside scenario: prices are likely to continue to decline after approaching 4.500.

Natural Gas Recommendations:

Buy: when approaching 3.200. Stop: 2.800. Target: 3.900.

Sell: when approaching 4.500. Stop: 4.700 Target: 3.200.

Support — 3.735. Resistance — 4.445.

Diesel arctic fuel, ETP eOil.ru

Growth scenario: out of the market for now. We are waiting for an upward spurt.

Downside scenario: we will not sell anything. There is a constant risk of a sudden rise in prices.

Diesel Market Recommendations:

Buy: no.

Sale: no.

Support — 61543. Resistance — 69160.

Helium (Orenburg), ETP eOil.ru

Growth scenario: it makes sense to keep longing. At a certain point, prices will start to rise for everything. And helium, too.

Downside scenario: stay out of the market, prices are low.

Helium market recommendations:

Buy: No. Who is in position from 900, keep stop at 850. Target: 2000.

Sale: no.

Support — 856. Resistance is 1109.

Gold. COMEX

Growth scenario: we consider the April futures, expiration date April 28. This is a nasty rise. We weren’t expecting it right now. Out of the market.

Downside scenario: if we went straight to 3300, it’s not a pretty story. Everything will be in a terrible overbought condition. Apparently, panic among the elites is starting to grow. We’re not thinking about selling yet.

Gold Market Recommendations:

Buy: no.

Sale: no.

Support — 2974. Resistance — 3102.

EUR/USD

Growth scenario: we will wait for a pullback to 1.0550. It is uncomfortable to buy from current levels.

Downside scenario: our reversal in a not very clear place. We want 1.0550. Trump may strengthen the dollar with the chaos he creates.

Recommendations on euro/dollar pair:

Buy: on a pullback to 1.0550. Stop: 1.0450. Target: 1.1090 (1.2000).

Sell: when approaching 1.1100. Stop: 1.1130. Target: 1.0550. Those who are in the position from 1.0875, move the stop to 1.0926. Target: 1.0550.

Support — 1.0732. Resistance — 1.0858.

USD/RUB

Growth scenario: we consider the June futures, expiration date June 19. Nothing new. From 82600 it’s a definite buy. A rise above 91000 will make us think about buying after the breakdown of the falling trend line.

Downside scenario: a move to 82500 remains possible. However, we will not recommend to short directly.

Recommendations on dollar/ruble pair:

Buy: when approaching 82600. Stop: 81400. Target: 115000?!!! In case of further growth and touching 91000. Stop: 88500. Target: 115000. Consider the risks.

Sale: no.

Support — 86712. Resistance — 92351.

RTSI. MOEX

Growth scenario: we consider June futures, expiration date is June 19. The market listened to our perturbations described in the last forecast. We are going down. Buying from the 90000 area may make sense.

Downside scenario: went below 117500 after which we started shedding. Structurally we are able to visit 95500 and 89000.

Recommendations on the RTS index:

Buy: when approaching 89500. Stop: 88300. Target: 110000.

Sell: no. Those who are in position from 117500, move the stop to 117000. Target: 89500.

Support — 106080. Resistance — 115650.

The recommendations in this article are NOT a direct guide for speculators and investors. All ideas and options for working on the markets presented in this material do NOT have 100% probability of execution in the future. The site does not take any responsibility for the results of deals.

Previous report