Grain market:

We have a jubilee: one dollar is 100 rubles. It’s no big deal, we’ve already been at these levels. What’s the difference between 120 rubles and 200 rubles per dollar? Why all this speculation and quotations? There are prices, they are in rubles. Live in peace, everything is fine.

Here’s to peace of mind. Hello!

This release was prepared with the direct participation of analysts from trading platforms eOil.ru and IDK.ru. Here is an assessment of the situation on the global and Russian markets.

During the last week wheat marked its aspiration to go to 500.0 on the Chicago Exchange. Quotes SRW decreased by 7% for the week on the background of a strongly strengthened dollar index, as well as amid concerns that China will buy less agricultural products in the United States. Note that the weakening ruble makes the purchase of Russian wheat more attractive, compared to other major suppliers. However, competition for the market with Brazil and Eastern Europe is not going anywhere. Labor is inexpensive in these regions. Nevertheless, prices will remain adequate and there will be enough market space for everyone, as demand will be at a high level. Below the 500.0 cents per bushel level, the US wheat market is not visible at the moment.

While for the U.S. the arguments about the decline in demand from China are relevant, however, it is their own fault, they should not have scared Beijing with sanctions and duties, for Russia and Kazakhstan it is a chance to get even deeper into China. This year, the supply of agricultural products to China from Russia has grown significantly: wheat by 100%, barley by 50%, pork by 30%, and there is growth in other items. The volumes are still small, but Beijing is turning its face towards us in this matter. China imports about 20 million tons of wheat and 15 million tons of barley every year, most of it from Australia and Canada, and in recent years it has started to take from the United States. Not a good geopolitical construct amid Trump’s announced trade war with Beijing. The prospect of increased confrontation with the West is forcing the Chinese to take more and more products from Russia.

Energy market:

If Trump leads duties on Chinese goods at 60%, will we see a drop in oil demand? Yes, provided China can’t find new markets for it. And it probably can’t. Europe and the US are rich enough to pay, South America and Africa can buy combs and slippers too, but at lower prices. The people are poor. They will have to give serious discounts, devalue the yuan, and give installments so that factories inside the country can continue to operate.

There are preconditions that the West will develop a long-term program of containment of China, which should lead to the cessation of growth of the Chinese economy. Rich white men will not continue to fatten up 1 billion people who are basically strangers to you. It’s… counterproductive.

The situation is such that we can still count on touching 70.00 on Brent. Further decline in the oil market will be possible only if negative information on global trade or global GDP growth appears. Understanding of what the results of the 24th year may be will appear by mid-December, therefore, a fall below 70.00 already now looks unlikely.

USD/RUB:

There is a risk of a drop in banks’ profits, which is understandable, as it is not so easy to give out new loans at 40%. In addition, the slowdown of business activity in the housing market and, as a consequence, the bankruptcy of large developers, can severely harm the banking business. It is not excluded that the Central Bank’s revocation of banks’ licenses will gain momentum. Bad players will be slowly bailed out, structured and merged with those who are still healthy.

US inflation data make a rapid Fed rate cut unlikely. Yes, most likely, the cycle of easing the MPC will continue, but it will be much smoother than it was expected in the beginning and middle of the year. It is possible that at the December meeting the Fed Funds rate will not be reduced, or will be reduced symbolically. The dollar index is overbought, but there are no hints of its fall.

The dollar/ruble parade will soon gravitate towards further growth towards the 104.00 area.

Wheat No. 2 Soft Red. CME Group

Let’s look at the volumes of open interest in Wheat. You should take into account that this is three days old data (for Tuesday of last week), and it is also the most recent data published by CME Group.

At the moment there are more open short positions of asset managers than long ones. Over the past week the difference between long and short positions of asset managers increased by 18.3 th. contracts. There were no buyers, sellers were aggressively building up their positions. Bears strengthened their control.

Growth scenario: we consider the December futures, expiration date December 13. It is possible that we will buy at the end of next week t 500.0. At current price levels we do nothing.

Downside scenario: nothing interesting for sellers for a long time. Out of the market.

Recommendations for the wheat market:

Buy: when approaching 500.0. Stop: 490.0. Target: 650.0.

Sale: no.

Support — 519.4. Resistance — 557.6.

Corn No. 2 Yellow. CME Group

Let’s look at the volumes of open interest in Corn. You should take into account that this data is three days old (for Tuesday of last week), it is also the most recent of those published by the CME Group exchange.

At the moment there are more open long positions of asset managers than short ones. Over the past week, the difference between long and short positions of asset managers increased by 96.7 thousand contracts. The change is gigantic. Buyers were entering the market. Sellers were fleeing.

Growth scenario: we consider December futures, expiration date December 13. Bulls-speculators came to the market, but they are encountering sell-offs on the part of producers, which is still blurring the influence of managers on the situation. Note that the move to 465.0, in terms of technique, has not been canceled yet.

Downside scenario: as long as we are above 415.0 a bullish picture is in front of us. Out of the market.

Recommendations for the corn market:

Buy: no. Those who are in positions from 415.6, 410.0 and 400.0, move your stop to 412.0. Target: 465.0.

Sale: no.

Support — 416.0. Resistance — 435.0.

Soybeans No. 1. CME Group

Growth scenario: we consider the January futures, expiration date January 14. Don’t think about buying while we are below 1050.0.

Downside scenario: we will continue to keep open shorts. There’s a lot of soybeans. But! If corn continues to rise, we may have to forget about 830.0 in soybeans.

Recommendations for the soybean market:

Buy: when approaching 835.0. Stop: 815.0. Target: 1000.0.

Sell: no. Who is in position from 1049.0, keep your stop at 1053.0. Target: 835.0.

Support — 971.4. Resistance — 1044.2.

Brent. ICE

Let’s look at the open interest volumes for Brent. You should take into account that this is three days old data (for Tuesday of last week), and it is also the most recent data published by the ICE exchange.

At the moment there are more open long positions of asset managers than short ones. During the past week the difference between long and short positions of asset managers decreased by 14.3 th. contracts. Buyers and sellers entered the market, but sellers did it more actively. There are more bulls on the oil market.

Growth scenario: we consider November futures, expiration date is November 29. There is balance on the market, which is harmful for speculations. A possible attempt to pass below 70.00 can be used for purchases.

Downside scenario: nothing is clear. Off-market.

Recommendations for the Brent oil market:

Buy: at touching 70.00. Stop: 69.40. Target: 90.00.

Sale: no.

Support — 70.67. Resistance — 73.31.

WTI. CME Group

US fundamental data: the number of active drilling rigs decreased by 1 unit to 478.

US commercial oil inventories rose by 2.089 to 429.747 million barrels, with +0.4 million barrels forecast. Gasoline inventories fell by -4.407 to 206.873 million barrels. Distillate stocks fell -1.394 to 114.415 million barrels. Cushing storage stocks fell by -0.688 to 25.191 million barrels.

Oil production fell by -0.1 to 13.4 million barrels per day. Oil imports rose by 0.269 to 6.509 million barrels per day. Oil exports rose by 0.59 to 3.44 million barrels per day. Thus, net oil imports fell by -0.321 to 3.069 million barrels per day. Oil refining rose by 0.9 to 91.4 percent.

Gasoline demand increased by 0.555 to 9.383 million barrels per day. Gasoline production increased by 0.559 to 10.267 million barrels per day. Gasoline imports rose 0.399 to 0.628 million barrels per day. Gasoline exports increased by 0.293 to 1.177 million barrels per day.

Distillate demand rose by 0.692 to 4.098 million barrels. Distillate production fell -0.127 to 4.969 million barrels. Distillate imports fell -0.054 to 0.108 million barrels. Distillate exports fell -0.252 to 1.179 million barrels per day.

Demand for refined products increased by 1.844 million barrels to 21.583 million barrels. Production of petroleum products increased by 0.468 to 22.744 million barrels. Petroleum product imports rose 0.46 to 1.788 million barrels. Exports of refined products fell -0.659 to 6.958 million barrels per day.

Propane demand rose by 0.609 to 1.319 million barrels. Propane production fell -0.066 to 2.677 million barrels. Propane imports rose 0.009 to 0.119 million barrels. Propane exports fell -0.506 to 1.783 million barrels per day.

Let’s look at the WTI open interest volumes. You should take into account that this is three-day old data (for Tuesday of last week), and it is also the most recent data published by the CME Group exchange.

At the moment there are more open long positions of asset managers than short ones. Over the past week the difference between long and short positions of asset managers decreased by 13 thousand contracts. Buyers left the market in insignificant volume, sellers modestly increased their volumes. Bulls keep control.

Growth scenario: moved to January futures, expiration date December 20. Can be bought on an attempt to break down. Chances of a market reversal are small, but the potential profit/risk ratio is good.

Downside scenario: we may continue to fall, but if that happens, it is better to refrain from selling and look for opportunities in other markets.

Recommendations for WTI crude oil:

Buy: when approaching 65.00. Stop: 64.40. Target: 80.00.

Sale: no.

Support — 66.56. Resistance — 72.87.

Gas-Oil. ICE

Growth scenario: we consider December futures, expiration date December 12. If we look at the candles, there is a hint of stopping the fall. It makes sense to continue holding longs.

Downside scenario: there is a risk of recovery to 710.0. It can be used for selling.

Gasoil Recommendations:

Buy: no. Who is in the position from 645.00 (taking into account the transition to a new contract), keep the stop at 643.00. Target: 910.00 (revised).

Sell: when approaching 710.0. Stop: 720.0. Target: 600.0.

Support — 652.50. Resistance — 698.50.

Natural Gas. CME Group

Growth scenario: we consider December futures, expiration date November 26. Nothing new. Buying does not make sense yet. Bulls are weak. We are waiting for an upward exit from the falling channel. Out of the market.

Downside scenario: we will keep shorting.

Natural Gas Recommendations:

Buy: think after rising above 3.200.

Sell: No. Those in position from 3,000, keep your stop at 3,100. Target: 1.550.

Support — 2.473. Resistance — 3.021.

Gold. COMEX

Growth scenario: we consider December futures, expiration date December 27. Pullback to 2550. We bought it. Hold. Technically, we are able to go to 3100. If we fall below 2500, this probability becomes elusive.

Downside scenario: it is unlikely that we can go below 2500 without going up to 2648. The upside pullback can be used for selling, but on hourly intervals.

Gold Market Recommendations:

Buy: no. Those who are in position from 2550, move the stop to 2530. Target: 2840 (3100).

Sale: no.

Support — 2542. Resistance — 2648.

EUR/USD

Growth scenario: we continue falling. We will remember about purchases in case of a move to 1.0200 (1.0000).

Downside scenario: it is possible to continue holding shorts. Those who wish can push the stop order. We will move it almost close to it, guaranteeing to take 3.75 figures.

Recommendations on euro/dollar pair:

Buy: no.

Sell: on a rise to 1.0740. Stop: 1.0780. Target: 1.0000. Those who are in the position from 1.0935, move the stop to 1.0560. Target: 1.0000.

Support — 1.0486. Resistance — 1.0679.

USD/RUB

Growth scenario: we consider the December futures, expiration date December 19. “If there is a pullback to 91000, it makes sense to buy again,” was the phrase of last week. As we can see, such a pullback is hardly possible yet. The market is rallying.

Downside scenario: sell from 100,000? Let’s refrain. On hourly intervals we can think about a pullback to 96000, for example.

Recommendations on dollar/ruble pair:

Buy: when approaching 96000. Stop: 95000. Target: 104000. Those in position from 96234, move stop to 98800. Target: 150000, 200000?! (these are the benchmarks for now)

Sale: no.

Support — 97112. Resistance — 104540.

RTSI. MOEX

Growth scenario: we consider December futures, expiration date December 19. They gave us a pullback. We bought. But the current position is that it will become easier for us only after we grow above 92000, it will become easier after we grow above 96000.

Downside scenario: levels are low. On hourly intervals we can bet that we will not rise above 90000. Note that the market is able to continue falling from the current situation to 78000 and 70000.

Recommendations on the RTS index:

Buy: no. Who is in position from 86000 and 88000, keep stop at 84000. Target: 116000!!!

Sale: not yet.

Support — 85140. Resistance — 93260.

The recommendations in this article are NOT a direct guide for speculators and investors. All ideas and options for working on the markets presented in this material do NOT have 100% probability of execution in the future. The site does not take any responsibility for the results of deals.

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