Grain market:

In the US, two parties have agreed to raise the debt ceiling. And many hoped … I wanted to look at the financial fireworks. But maybe there will still be. This year. Closer to winter. When it becomes clear that people cannot pay off loans and banks will burst like popcorn.

But in spite of everything, health to all of us, and that our and your capitals grow as well as the price of corn last week. Hello!

This issue has been prepared with the direct participation of analysts from eOil.ru and IDK.ru trading platforms. Here an assessment of the situation in the world and Russian markets is given.

The future of the grain deal, including the current deal, has been left in limbo after drone boats attacked a Russian ship from what is said to be a demilitarized corridor meant to transport grain from Ukrainian ports in the Black Sea. We have a version that the Kremlin will wait for who will win in Turkey. In order not to spoil Erdogan’s raspberries now, a pause has been taken. Then you have to negotiate somehow. Russia itself has enough grain to feed the whole of Turkey.

Domestic wheat prices continue to remain at low levels. If three weeks ago, just in time for the May holidays, there was a feeling that prices had reached the bottom, then the next twenty days disproved this assumption. On the domestic market, you can take the 5th class at 6500 and it does not matter with or without VAT, the 4th class at 9500, and the 3rd at 10500 rubles per ton. It is clear that these lots are not exhibited from a good life.

What is the danger? The fact that next year, if the situation does not change, we will get the same as in Kazakhstan, namely, a massive sale of farms.

Reading our forecasts, you could make money on the oil market by taking a move down from 86.50 to 77.90 dollars per barrel.

Energy market:

It turns out that Russia, according to the Saudi comrades, does not comply with the agreement to reduce production. On June 4th there will be an OPEC + meeting at which all sorts of princes will present us for the economy. And Novak will have to explain himself. Of course, Washington has experienced the greatest pleasure from such news and wants to continue the squabble. But we don’t need this at all. The Saudi prince, he will not be circling the plane over the Atlantic back and forth, he will turn the valve and fill everything with oil. We urgently need to poke around in the treasury and bring him some kind of diamond as a gift.

Economic conditions in the US remain unattractive for increasing production. Moreover, drilling activity has begun to fall against expectations, which should add to concerns about a shortage of supply. However, there is already visible evidence that Venezuela (the first country in terms of reserves) has been taken up in full. We do not expect very high prices (140.00).

Since the Republicans and Democrats agreed on the state debt, it is likely that oil prices will receive support from buyers next week, which can quickly bring the market to the 80.00 area.

USD/RUB:

As long as Russia sells maximum volumes of oil, there will be no big problems in the country’s economy. Of course, the question arises what are we selling for? What’s the currency? Cash or whatever. However, there is still enough income.

In fact, there are almost enough of them. The budget deficit is growing. But in the current situation, when defense spending has skyrocketed, it is worth accepting this development as normal.

The pair is at 80.00. Technically, the moment for strengthening was missed. Now we are in uncertainty. In the short term, strengthening is possible; in the long term, the national currency, while maintaining the current state of affairs, will weaken, since external sanctions are imposed on the country for an indefinite period.

Wheat No. 2 Soft Red. CME Group

We’re looking at the volume of open interest of managers. You should keep in your mind that these are data from three days ago (for Tuesday of the past week), they are also the most recent of those published by the CME Group.

At the moment, there are more open short positions of asset managers than long ones. Sellers control the market. Over the past week, the difference between long and short positions of managers increased by 5.6 thousand contracts. Both buyers and sellers entered the market, but more sellers entered. The spread between short and long positions widened. Sellers hold the edge.

Growth scenario: we are considering the July futures, the expiration date is July 15. Bulls fight well. However, their position remains weak. The pause we took in trading proved to be justified. We continue to stay out of the market.

Fall scenario: we will not sell at current prices. There is nothing to speculate here.

Recommendations for the wheat market:

Purchase: no.

Sale: no.

Support — 602.2. Resistance — 639.6.

Corn No. 2 Yellow. CME Group

We’re looking at the volume of open interest of managers. You should keep in your mind that these are data from three days ago (for Tuesday of the past week), they are also the most recent of those published by the CME Group.

There are more asset managers open short positions than long positions. Over the past week, the difference between short and long positions of managers has increased by 10 thousand contracts. Vendors entered the market. There were no more buyers. Vendors have developed an advantage.

Growth scenario: we are considering the July futures, the expiration date is July 15. Judging by the behavior of speculators (see open interest), they do not believe in growth. We do not buy.

Fall scenario: should we sell now? There are several levels from which this can be done: 600.0, 610.0, 630.0, 650.0. We believe that the current growth of corn is a bluff.

Recommendations for the corn market:

Purchase: no.

Sale: now and as it rises to 650.0. Stop: 710.0. Target: 500.0. Count the risks!!!

Support — 575.4. Resistance — 630.0.

 

Soybeans No. 1. CME Group

Growth scenario: we are considering the July futures, the expiration date is July 15. Soy has stopped its fall. But we won’t buy it. It is too early. We are waiting for it around 1000.0.

Fall scenario: we continue to believe in the success of our shorts. It is necessary to hold positions, as the forecasts for the gross harvest are very good. Not enough travel at 1250.0. After that there will be an upward correction.

Recommendations for the soybean market:

Purchase: no.

Sale: no. Who is in position from 1520.0, 1510.0 and 1445.0, keep the stop at 1430.0. Target: 1000.0.

Support — 1299.4. Resistance — 1383.2.

Brent. ICE

We’re looking at the volume of open interest of managers. You should keep in your mind that these are data from three days ago (for Tuesday of the past week), they are also the most recent of those published by the ICE exchange.

At the moment, there are more open long positions of asset managers than short ones. Over the past week, the difference between long and short positions of managers increased by 34.6 thousand contracts. Buyers actively entered the market, sellers ran away from it. The spread between long and short positions widened, and the bulls strengthened their lead.

Growth scenario: we consider the June futures, the expiration date is June 30. We will buy. Growth to 87.00 cannot be ruled out.

Fall scenario: we will not sell yet. Let’s take a break despite Red Thursday.

Recommendations for the Brent oil market:

Purchase: now. Stop: 74.70. Target: 87.00.

Sale: no.

Support — 75.06. Resistance is 80.96.

 

WTI. CME Group

US fundamental data: the number of active drilling rigs decreased by 5 units and now stands at 570 units.

US commercial oil inventories fell by -12.456 to 455.168 million barrels, while the forecast was -0.92 million barrels. Inventories of gasoline fell -2.053 to 216.277 million barrels. Distillate inventories fell -0.561 to 105.672 million barrels. Inventories at Cushing rose by 1.762 to 37.23 million barrels.

Oil production increased by 0.1 to 12.3 million barrels per day. Oil imports fell by -1.01 to 5.85 million barrels per day. Oil exports rose by 0.239 to 4.549 million barrels per day. Thus, net oil imports fell by -1.249 to 1.301 million barrels per day. Oil refining fell by -0.3 to 91.7 percent.

Gasoline demand rose by 0.529 to 9.437 million barrels per day. Gasoline production increased by 0.833 to 10.315 million barrels per day. Gasoline imports fell by -0.081 to 0.763 million barrels per day. Gasoline exports fell -0.219 to 0.711 million bpd.

Demand for distillates rose by 0.462 to 4.198 million barrels. Distillate production increased by 0.019 to 4.875 million barrels. Distillate imports rose by 0.028 to 0.156 million barrels. Distillate exports fell -0.322 to 0.914 mb/d.

Demand for petroleum products rose by 1.143 to 20.701 million barrels. Production of petroleum products increased by 0.875 to 22.586 million barrels. Imports of refined products fell by -0.008 to 2.014 million barrels. Exports of petroleum products fell by -0.945 to 5.551 million barrels per day.

Demand for propane rose by 0.2 to 0.818 million barrels. Propane production fell by -0.012 to 2.47 million barrels. Propane imports rose by 0.014 to 0.088 million barrels. Propane exports fell by -0.314 to 1.303 million barrels per day.

We look at the volumes of open interest on WTI. You should keep in mind that these are data from three days ago (for Tuesday of the last week), they are also the most recent of those published by the CME Group exchange.

At the moment, there are more open long positions of asset managers than short ones. Over the past week, the difference between long and short positions of managers has decreased by 12 thousand contracts. Buyers preferred to leave the market. The sellers kept their volumes. The spread between long and short positions narrowed. The advantage of the bulls has shrunk.

Growth scenario: we are considering the July futures, the expiration date is June 20. It makes sense to keep longs. So far, there are no prerequisites for a downward reversal.

Fall scenario: if sellers had opportunities, they would have already demonstrated them to us. Let’s wait for the stop orders for the shorts we have.

Recommendations for WTI oil:

Purchase: no. Who is in position from 72.00, move the stop to 69.90. Target: 85.00.

Sale: no. Who is in position from 72.00, move the stop to 75.30. Target: 62.00?!

Support — 63.88. Resistance — 73.81.

Gas-Oil. ICE

Growth scenario: consider the May futures, the expiration date is June 12. The market is unchanged. We continue to wait for the fall to 600.0. When this happens, it will be available for purchase.

Fall scenario: you can sell when you approach 750.0. Short from current levels looks underestimated.

Gasoil recommendations:

Purchase: when approaching 600.0. Stop: 570.0. Target: 800.0.

Sale: when approaching 750.0. Stop: 780.0. Target: 550.0?!

Support — 629.75. Resistance is 707.00.

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas. CME Group

Growth scenario: we are considering the July futures, the expiration date is June 28. We see the complete completion of the market cycle: momentum and correction to it. We are waiting for the next impulse. We hold longs.

Fall scenario: we will not sell from current levels. Out of the market.

Recommendations for natural gas:

Purchase: no. Who is in position between 2.137 and 2.223, keep the stop at 2.100. Target: 3.340.

Sale: no.

Support — 2.233. Resistance is 2.467.

 

 

Arctic diesel fuel (Surgut), ETP eOil.ru

Growth scenario: The market remains stable. The theory is the same: sooner or later the government will tax the industry. Fuel prices will rise.

Fall scenario: for sales, we need growth to at least 70,000. In the meantime, we will be out of the market.

Diesel market recommendations:

Purchase: now. Stop: 49000. Target: 65000 (70000). Count the risks. Whoever is in position from 55000, keep the stop at 49000. Target: 65000 (70000).

Sale: no.

Support — 50762. Resistance — 61602.

Propane butane (Surgut), ETP eOil.ru

Growth scenario: stop shopping. We are waiting for the market to cool down. The 15,000 mark looks reasonable for purchases.

Fall scenario: holding shorts. We continue to wait for a rollback to 15000.

Recommendations for the PBT market:

Purchase: when approaching 15000. Stop: 12000. Target: 25000.

Sale: no. Who is in position from 22500, move the stop to 22700. Target: 15000.

Support — 13184. Resistance — 26719.

 

 

 

Helium (Orenburg), ETP eOil.ru

Growth scenario: keep longs. We can talk about a goal at 5000.

Fall scenario: current levels are understated for sales. We are waiting for growth to at least 4000, better than 5000.

Recommendations for the helium market:

Purchase: no. Who is in position 2800, keep stop at 2700. Target: 5000.

Sale: think when approaching 5000.

Support — 2766. Resistance — 3484.

 

 

Gold. CME Group

Growth scenario: prices in a falling channel. Refrain from buying. Early.

Fall scenario: holding shorts. We continue to expect that the market will fall 1875 (1750).

Recommendations for the gold market:

Purchase: not yet.

Sale: no. Who is in position from 2020, move the stop to 2010. Target: 1875 (1750).

Support — 1871. Resistance — 1952.

 

EUR/USD

Growth scenario: fell to 1.0700. Nevertheless, we will continue to insist on purchases.

Fall scenario: we must continue to hold the shorts. There are many interesting levels below. Including 1.0100.

Recommendations for the EUR/USD pair:

Purchase: now. Stop: 1.0660. Target: 1.1900. It can be aggressive.

Sale: no. Who is in position from 1.1000, move the stop to 1.0860. Target: 1.0100?!

Support — 1.0512. Resistance is 1.0759.

USD/RUB

Growth scenario: we continue to believe that a long position from 73.00 would be ideal. Instead, we see a regulated stagnation. June 9 meeting on the rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation. There are rumors that it can be raised. If this happens, maybe the ruble will really get stronger.

Fall scenario: target at 73.00 remains on radar. Those who wish can sell.

Recommendations for the dollar/ruble pair:

Purchase: when approaching 73.00. Stop: 71.70. Target: 88.70. Think after rising above 81.60.

Sale: now. Stop: 81.70. Target: 73.00?!

Support — 79.03. Resistance — 81.07.

 

RTSI

Growth scenario: we are considering the June futures, the expiration date is June 15. And the market is growing. There is a feeling that the money simply has nowhere to go within the country. People climb into the action, as in MMM. We will keep long based on 112,000, and there we may see both 150,000 and 200,000 at such a pace. The share price can be anything.

Fall scenario: nothing has changed. We will sell only after falling below 98000. We need confirmation of the break in sentiment.

Recommendations for the RTS index:

Purchase: no. Who is in position from 100000, move the stop to 101000. Target: 112000.

Sale: if below 98000. Stop: 100200. Target: 90000.

Support — 100910. Resistance — 105790.

The recommendations in this article are NOT a direct guide for speculators and investors. All ideas and options for working on the markets presented in this material do NOT have 100% probability of execution in the future. The site does not take any responsibility for the results of deals.

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