Архив за 4 сентября, 2023

Grain market:

The G20 is losing its lustre. The leaders of Russia and China will not come to the summit in India on September 9th, which suggests that neither one nor the other is in a hurry to deal with adherents of their own exceptionalism. Western heads of state, of those who still think something, will be unpleasant to feel that they have been honored with their respect and attention of a person on a level below.

I feel sorry for Sergei Viktorovich. Now dancing at one airport, now dancing again at another. Hello!

This issue has been prepared with the direct participation of analysts from eOil.ru and IDK.ru trading platforms. Here an assessment of the situation in the world and Russian markets is given.

A senior tomato, aka Recep Erdogan, will come to us. Yeah. 4th. They will give him 1 million tons of grain, let him thresh for very poor countries without any grain deal. Maybe they will give something else, but I would like to see some kind of consistency in the actions of the Turkish leader. The choice of one chair out of two was clearly delayed.

Harvesting continues in Russia. 105 million tons of grain have been harvested. The yield of wheat is 40 centners per hectare, against 44 last year. Already threshed 61 million tons of wheat, while there is a drop in quality in the Central regions: the 5th grade is harvested from 20 to 30% of the total, depending on the region. In the south, the quality is all right. 3rd and 4th grade dominate. 5th grade is only 10%.

We see that the new crop beats prices. This is likely the last week the market will make, or try to make, new lows in wheat and corn, followed by a limited rally of around 15% over the next two months as volumes are collected. There will be no shortage of grain.

Рынок фьючерсов на пшеницу в Чикаго торговался в пятницу стабильно, но в Канзас-Сити и Миннеаполисе он снижался. Фьючерсы на HRW упали на 3 ¼-5 ¼ цента, за исключением прироста на 7 центов по сентябрьскому контракту. Министерство сельского хозяйства США сообщило, что за неделю, завершившуюся 24 августа, на экспорт было продано 329 141 тонн пшеницы. В преддверии отчета прогнозировался объем торгов между 250 000 и 700 000 тонн. По классам лидировали продажи SRW и HRS с 59% и 45% соответственно. Сообщается, что египетская компания GASC заказала 240 тыс. тонн пшеницы в рамках своего импортного тендера на поставку в середине октября и ноябре, разделенную 50/50 на французскую и румынскую.