Ha! Ha! Ha! A lot of upwardly-mobile all-propellers started to swallow dust. Well, that’s okay. We’ll definitely bounce up from 35.00. And besides jokes, interesting levels are looming below. Read our forecast in full. We’ll all be as rich as the Arabs in the UAE.

For correct roll when maneuvering. Hello!

This release was prepared with the direct participation of analysts from trading platforms eOil.ru and IDK.ru. Here is an assessment of the situation on the global and Russian markets.

Grain market:

Brazil’s success in cereal production, particularly corn, overlapped with good expectations for the wheat harvest in Europe, which leads us to a simple conclusion: there will be plenty of cheap food. If the dollar continues to fall, which is still a big question, then the commodity group will somehow stay afloat. But the crisis, which, understandably, will be bought as they can, will still come, which will lead us to a drop in prices for literally everything. We remain bears on grain at the moment.

It is worth noting, however, that consumption continues to grow in line with supply. Soybeans, despite double-digit percentage growth from one year to the next, will be fully utilized and ending stocks will not change. The same can be said for the corn market: ending stocks will not increase despite supply growth.

Energy market:

The situation did not become clearer after Putin and Trump’s communication. Most likely, Russia will continue to feel obstacles in the export of hydrocarbons, and perhaps, and this makes the oil market nervous, will receive unpleasant opposition from the U.S. Congress.

The situation in the Middle East remains challenging. The threat of interruption of oil supplies due to military actions is constant, and this tension forces importers to increase storage volumes and, consequently, the volume of reserves.

OPEC+ does not abandon the goal of dropping the price of oil. As soon as the news comes out that American shale producers are in trouble, Maduro opens a bottle of champagne. The others celebrate as best they can, and they can celebrate well.

USD/RUB:

The ruble on the futures has broken the support at 82000 and tucked into 80000. Technically, we do not see any signs of an upward reversal. Some speculators who bet on the growth of the US currency are still forced to look at what is happening with tears in their eyes.

The Central Bank of Russia is likely to cut the rate at its June 6 meeting. To 19%? That is still a question. This is positive, but it may not be enough to save the economy. In general, the regulator’s hand can be felt now and the plan can be seen. We strengthen the currency, reduce the cost of imports, reduce inflation, lower the rate. We give cheaper loans to the economy. Let’s see how it will be put into practice.

Wheat No. 2 Soft Red. CME Group

Let’s look at the volumes of open interest in Wheat. You should take into account that this is three days old data (for Tuesday of last week), but it is also the most recent data published by CME Group.

At the moment there are more open short positions of asset managers than long ones. Over the past week the difference between long and short positions of asset managers decreased by 20 thousand contracts. Buyers were sluggishly coming in. Sellers were leaving the market. Bears retain control.

Growth scenario: we consider the July contract, expiration date July 14. There is no desire to buy because of the flow of positive forecasts on gross harvest. Out of the market.

Downside scenario: a somewhat disconcerting upward flight. Off-market.

Recommendations for the wheat market:

Buy: no.

Sale: no.

Support — 520.0. Resistance — 556.2.

Corn No. 2 Yellow. CME Group

Let’s look at the volumes of open interest in Corn. You should take into account that this data is three days old (for Tuesday of last week), it is also the most recent of those published by the CME Group exchange.

At the moment, there are more open short positions of asset managers than long positions. Bears have taken over! During the past week the difference between long and short positions of asset managers increased by 31.2 thousand contracts. Sellers arrived on the market, buyers kept the volumes of their positions. Bears strengthened their control!

Growth scenario: moved to July contract, expiration date July 14. Should I buy? No. Absolutely not.

Downside scenario: we can continue to short. We are capable of going very low.

Recommendations for the corn market:

Buy: no.

Sell: now (459.00) and when approaching 477.0. Stop: 497.0. Target: 300.0?!!! Count the risks!

Support — 451.4. Resistance — 468.4.

Soybeans No. 1. CME Group

Growth scenario: we consider the July contract, expiration date July 14. Out of the market for now.

Downside scenario: knocked out of the short, you can re-enter.

Recommendations for the soybean market:

Buy: no.

Sell: now (1060.2) Stop: 1090.0. Target: 840.0?!

Support — 1036.6. Resistance — 1080.4.

Brent. ICE

Let’s look at the open interest volumes for Brent. You should take into account that this is three days old data (for Tuesday of last week), it is also the most recent data published by the ICE exchange.

At the moment there are more open long positions of asset managers than short ones. Over the past week the difference between long and short positions of asset managers increased by 7.4 thousand contracts. We see a small inflow of speculative money. Buyers arrived more actively. Bulls keep control.

Growth scenario: switched to July futures, expiration date June 27. We continue to stay out of the market.

Downside scenario: there will probably be a strike at 70.80. We will use it for selling.

Recommendations for the Brent oil market:

Buy: no.

Sell: when approaching 70.80. Stop: 72.80. Target: 55.00.

Support — 60.46. Resistance — 67.30.

WTI. CME Group

US fundamentals: the number of active rigs decreased by 8 to 465.

US commercial crude oil inventories rose by 1.328 to 443.158 million barrels, against a forecast of -0.9 million barrels. Gasoline inventories rose 0.816 to 225.522 million barrels. Distillate stocks rose 0.579 to 104.132 million barrels. Cushing storage stocks fell by -0.457 to 23.435 million barrels.

Oil production increased by 0.005 to 13.392 million barrels per day. Oil imports increased by 0.248 to 6.089 million barrels per day. Oil exports rose by 0.138 to 3.507 million barrels per day. Thus, net oil imports rose by 0.11 to 2.582 million barrels per day. Oil refining increased by 0.5 to 90.7 percent.

Gasoline demand fell -0.15 to 8.644 million barrels per day. Gasoline production rose 0.178 to 9.561 million barrels per day. Gasoline imports fell -0.075 to 0.747 million barrels per day. Gasoline exports rose 0.05 to 0.983 million barrels per day.

Distillate demand fell by -0.365 to 3.412 million barrels. Distillate production rose by 0.131 to 4.712 million barrels. Distillate imports fell -0.038 to 0.141 million barrels. Distillate exports fell -0.075 to 1.358 million barrels per day.

Demand for petroleum products increased by 0.59 to 20.031 million barrels. Petroleum products production rose by 0.809 to 22.3 million barrels. Petroleum product imports fell -0.22 to 1.587 million barrels. Exports of refined products fell -1.017 to 6.566 million barrels per day.

Propane demand rose by 0.425 to 0.841 million barrels. Propane production fell -0.005 to 2.833 million barrels. Propane imports fell -0.02 to 0.08 million barrels. Propane exports fell -0.511 to 1.69 million barrels per day.

Let’s look at the WTI open interest volumes. You should take into account that this is three-day old data (for Tuesday of last week), and it is also the most recent data published by CME Group.

At the moment there are more open long positions of asset managers than short ones. Over the past week the difference between long and short positions of asset managers decreased by 6.2 thousand contracts. The activity of the parties was about zero. Bulls retain control.

Growth scenario: we consider July futures, expiration date is June 20. Buying is not interesting. Out of the market.

Downside scenario: knocked out of the shorts. So far out of the market. But when approaching 67.00 we will go down again.

Recommendations for WTI crude oil:

Buy: no.

Sell: when approaching 67.00. Stop: 69.00. Target: 53.00.

Support — 54.41. Resistance — 64.16.

Gas-Oil. ICE

Growth scenario: we consider June futures, expiration date June 11. There is nowhere to buy. Out of the market. Only when approaching 420.0.

Downside scenario: approaching 650.0 will open a good shorting opportunity.

Gasoil Recommendations:

Buy: when approaching 420.0. Stop: 390.0. Target: 600.0.

Sell: on approach to 650.0. Stop: 670.0. Target: 500.0.

Support — 600.75. Resistance — 637.00

Natural Gas. CME Group

Growth scenario: moved to July futures, expiration date June 25. Refrain from buying. Out of the market.

Downside scenario: we don’t sell. There is not much gas in Europe. The EU’s dependence on external supplies will grow along with the growing desire of Europeans to live well. And this growth will definitely happen.

Natural Gas Recommendations:

Buy: not yet.

Sale: no.

Support — 3.296. Resistance — 3.847.

Diesel arctic fuel, ETP eOil.ru

Growth scenario: continue to recommend purchases. Bad things are happening to the budget. Fuel will be taxed (hypothesis).

Downside scenario: we will not sell anything. There is a constant risk of a sudden rise in prices.

Diesel Market Recommendations:

Buy: possible. Who is in position from 64000, keep stop at 59000. Target: 120000.

Sale: no.

Support — 60957. Resistance — 71309.

Helium (Orenburg), ETP eOil.ru

Growth scenario: waiting for growth above 1100. Sad market.

Downside scenario: stay out of the market, prices are low.

Helium market recommendations:

Buy: think after rising above 1100.

Sale: no.

Support — 790. Resistance — 1027.

Gold. COMEX

Growth scenario: we consider the June futures, expiration date June 26. The situation continues to be equilibrium. Out of the market.

Downside scenario: out of the market.

Gold Market Recommendations:

Buy: no.

Sale: no.

Support — 3256. Resistance — 3448.

EUR/USD

Growth scenario: we are growing somehow. Levels for buying are not interesting. Out of the market.

Downside scenario: the bears have been kicked out of the meadow. Out of the market.

Recommendations on euro/dollar pair:

Buy: no.

Sale: no.

Support — 1.1063. Resistance — 1.1435.

USD/RUB

Growth scenario: we consider the June futures, expiration date June 19. Nothing new. A reversal is needed to enter long.

Downside scenario: uncomfortable to sell. Looking for opportunities in other markets.

Recommendations on dollar/ruble pair:

Buy: in case of growth above 85500. Stop: 84800. Target: 115000. Consider the risks.

Sale: no.

Support — 70894. Resistance — 83419.

RTSI. MOEX

Growth scenario: we consider June futures, expiration date June 19. We continue to refuse to buy. Let’s go to 60000 and buy everything there!

Downside scenario: we should keep shorting. The economic outlook does not look bright.

Recommendations on the RTS index:

Buy: no.

Sell: no. Who is in position from 115300 and 114500, keep stop at 114200. Target: 80000 (60000).

Support — 105600. Resistance — 115850.

The recommendations in this article are NOT a direct guide for speculators and investors. All ideas and options for working on the markets presented in this material do NOT have 100% probability of execution in the future. The site does not take any responsibility for the results of deals.

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