Price forecast from 20 to 24 January 2025
20 January 2025, 07:58

Grain market:

They say that a sufferer feels good before he dies, and even seems to be able to pull through the terrible story that has befallen him. The Russian stock market seems to be cheerful with the Central Bank rate of 21%, growing inflation and the liquid part of the National Wealth Fund almost melted away. Those who are longing the Russian market believe that on Monday Trump will come and bananas will once again be in the store at 30 rubles, as they were once long ago.

To sanity! Hello!

This release was prepared with the direct participation of analysts from trading platforms eOil.ru and IDK.ru. Here is an assessment of the situation on the global and Russian markets.

We continue to pay attention to the narrowing of the spread between corn and wheat to 60 cents per bushel. There is a feeling that some funds started the game, and now they are not happy about it. Most likely, from the current area, we are unlikely to go above 488.0, corn will decline, and wheat, on the contrary, will rise slightly after being depressed for several months.

On Tuesday, Trump will wake up from his inauguration, and on Wednesday, if he rants about Mexico and its ban on GMO corn, it could weigh on the market. If there is no public irritation with the new Mexican initiatives, corn prices could remain at current levels. While the U.S. can supply GMO corn to a neighboring country, but this story will clearly come to an end, and then it will be necessary to switch to conventional varieties, which will entail a drop in yields, or find a market, and except for China, no one needs this good in cosmic volumes. Pigs. Pigs and poultry near Beijing are eating corn.

The same Trump, if he spreads his hairy arms towards Russia, may cause unwanted disturbances in the wheat market. If he manages to induce Turkey and Denmark to close the straits, it will be history, it will be a bacchanal. Then Russian exports will be extremely difficult. Only ports in the Far East will remain. Such a move will give a strong bullish impetus to both the wheat and oil markets.

Energy market:

Anti-Russian sanctions are stirring the minds of oil traders. While these are emotions, it will be much “more interesting” when statistics for the first quarter start coming from India and China. Already now these two major importers are looking for alternative supplies. And it is possible to take from the UAE or KSA, from Iran, too, but they threaten to deprive it of everything once again. It is uncomfortable. If it turns out that China and India have left Russian oil de facto, and they are constantly short of it, we may see 150.00 Brent. And why not?

Experts who have sold out to the West say that OPEC can increase its capacity by as much as 5 million barrels per day, but such statements should be divided by three. Yes, there is a reserve, but it is hardly that huge. This is to the question of the possibility to compensate for supplies from Russia. Yes, there is a possibility, but the way to that compensation will not be fast, so if Mr. Trump starts raging against Russia, the market will react by moving up.

In its report, OPEC paints us a demand growth of 1.4 million bpd in ’25 and in ’26. So nobody sees any preconditions for demand to stop growing. Yes, there are some people out there with glasses who see a slowdown in demand growth, but none of that will warm the bears. Officially, China is up 5.4% for the 24th year. And that’s just endless happiness for the oil market. Where’s the slowdown? Where? The Chinese Communist Party doesn’t see it. It’s not there. There’s just the occasional fear.

USD/RUB:

The pair stopped at 105000. Under the influence of a certain picture in the media, adherents of a tasty life and endless hopes for the best are betting that now Trump will come tomorrow, on Martin Luther King Day, on his day off, under a canopy, in the rotunda, in the White House, and say: “Well, okay, screw you. Then we’ve got Greenland, Canada, Mexico, Venezuela, something else, it’s not even clear where. We’ve got some other strait over there. In general, everything here.”

And then he’ll move into Paris. And that’s it. That’s it. If you don’t remember, the Yankees never left Berlin after ’45, so Berlin was already taken.

So…yes, with this sharing orange it could be that we even get back to 50.00. The problem will be if it’s us and not us sharing. Here, Comrade C has already prepared the chopsticks. They eat with chopsticks. Two. Everything, even baked locusts.

Wheat No. 2 Soft Red. CME Group

Let’s look at the volumes of open interest in Wheat. You should take into account that this is three days old data (for Tuesday of last week), but it is also the most recent data published by CME Group.

At the moment there are more open short positions of asset managers than long ones. Over the past week the difference between long and short positions of asset managers increased by 5 thousand contracts. Buyers were leaving, sellers were few. Bears retain control.

Growth scenario: we consider the March contract, expiration date March 14. Technically, we should buy here. But since we are already in a position, we recommend those who want to join the longs.

Downside scenario: let’s pause for a week.

Recommendations for the wheat market:

Buy: no. Who is in position from 533.0, move the stop to 527.0. Target: 635.0 (revised).

Sale: no.

Support — 532.6. Resistance — 551.6.

Рисунок 6

Corn No. 2 Yellow. CME Group

Let’s look at the volumes of open interest in Corn. You should take into account that this data is three days old (for Tuesday of last week), it is also the most recent of those published by the CME Group exchange.

At the moment there are more open long positions of asset managers than short ones. Over the past week the difference between long and short positions of asset managers increased by 48.4 thousand contracts. There are a lot of buyers. Sellers are reluctantly retreating.

Growth scenario: we consider the March contract, expiration date March 14. We approach the resistance level at 488.0. Then 510.0. There’s nowhere to buy. Out of the market.

Downside scenario: when approaching 488.0 it is possible to sell. Current levels are already interesting for short entry. From 510.0 you can sell aggressively.

Recommendations for the corn market:

Buy: no.

Sell: now (484.2) and on approach to 488.0. Stop: 494.0. Target: 440.0. When approaching 510.0. Stop: 515.0. Target: 440.0.

Support — 472.0. Resistance — 487.4.

Рисунок 7

Soybeans No. 1. CME Group

Growth scenario: we consider March futures, expiration date March 14. That’s nice. We should hold the long. We can add. Let’s move the stop on the trend.

Downside scenario: refuse to sell for now.

Recommendations for the soybean market:

Buy: no. Those who are in position from 1025.0, move the stop to 1010.0. Target: 1100.0.

Sale: no.

Support — 1016.2. Resistance — 1063.4.

Рисунок 8

Brent. ICE

Let’s look at the open interest volumes for Brent. You should take into account that this is three days old data (for Tuesday of last week), and it is also the most recent data published by the ICE exchange.

At the moment there are more open long positions of asset managers than short ones. Over the past week the difference between long and short positions of asset managers increased by 34.4 thousand contracts. Three weeks in a row there is a growth of bullish positions. Sellers do not change their positions. Bulls continue to strengthen their control.

Growth scenario: we consider January futures, expiration date is January 31. We are waiting for a pullback to buy. The movement target is 84.22.

Downside scenario: we stay out of the market. It is possible to sell from 84.20.

Recommendations for the Brent oil market:

Buy: on a pullback to 76.00. Stop: 74.80. Target: 84.22 (94.30).

Sell: when approaching 84.20. Stop: 84.80. Target: 76.00.

Support — 80.35. Resistance — 84.22.

Рисунок 1

WTI. CME Group

US fundamental data: the number of active rigs decreased by 2 units to 478.

U.S. commercial oil inventories fell -1.962 to 412.68 million barrels, with a forecast of -3.5 million barrels. Gasoline inventories rose by 5.852 to 243.566 million barrels. Distillate stocks rose 3.077 to 132.015 million barrels. Cushing storage stocks increased by 0.765 million barrels to 20.803 million barrels.

Oil production fell by -0.082 to 13.481 million barrels per day. Oil imports fell by -0.304 to 6.124 million barrels per day. Oil exports rose by 1 to 4.078 million barrels per day. Thus, net oil imports fell -1.304 to 2.046 million barrels per day. Oil refining fell by -1.6 to 91.7 percent.

Gasoline demand fell -0.156 to 8.325 million barrels per day. Gasoline production rose by 0.397 to 9.28 million barrels per day. Gasoline imports fell -0.005 to 0.45 million barrels per day. Gasoline exports rose 0.13 to 0.973 million barrels per day.

Distillate demand rose by 0.661 to 3.839 million barrels. Distillate production fell by -0.021 to 5.183 million barrels. Distillate imports rose 0.019 to 0.219 million barrels. Distillate exports fell -0.235 to 1.124 million barrels per day.

Demand for refined products increased by 0.882 million barrels to 20.673 million barrels. Petroleum products production increased by 0.752 to 22.181 million barrels. Petroleum product imports fell -0.193 to 1.557 million barrels. Exports of refined products fell -0.48 to 6.379 million barrels per day.

Propane demand rose by 0.161 to 1.597 million barrels. Propane production fell -0.039 to 2.631 million barrels. Propane imports rose 0.015 to 0.149 million barrels. Propane exports rose 0.142 to 1.861 million barrels per day.

Let’s look at the WTI open interest volumes. You should take into account that this is three-day old data (for Tuesday of last week), and it is also the most recent data published by the CME Group exchange.

At the moment there are more open long positions of asset managers than short ones. During the past week the difference between long and short positions of asset managers decreased by 17.6 th. contracts. Buyers were leaving the market, sellers were entering it. Bulls keep control. There is a feeling that someone has been actively chasing arbitrage between Brent and WTI for more than a year.

Growth scenario: we switched to March futures, expiration date is February 21. We look good, aggressive. Hold longs. We press stop orders on the trend.

Downside scenario: there is no sense to sell yet. We note that Trump’s statements can swing the market up or down.

Recommendations for WTI crude oil:

Buy: no. Who is in the position from 69.50, (taking into account the transition to a new contract), move the stop to 77.10. Target: 82.50 (95.00).

Sale: no.

Support — 75.80. Resistance — 79.38.

Рисунок 2

Gas-Oil. ICE

Growth scenario: we consider February futures, expiration date is February 10. Hold long. Move the stop order along the trend.

Downside scenario: do not sell. Technically, a reversal is possible, however, we have been growing very aggressively for the last month. Remember: “someone always knows something more than we do”.

Gasoil Recommendations:

Buy: No. Those who are in position from 670.00, move the stop to 740.00. Target: 840.00.

Sale: no.

Support — 727.00. Resistance — 769.25

Рисунок 3

Natural Gas. CME Group

Growth scenario: we consider February futures, expiration date is January 29. We should continue to hold the long. We’re moving actively. Well… the more interesting.

Downside scenario: we don’t think about sales yet.

Natural Gas Recommendations:

Buy: no. Those in position from 3.354, move your stop to 3.500. Target: 5,000.

Sale: no.

Support — 3.740. Resistance — 4.365.

Рисунок 5

Diesel arctic fuel, ETP eOil.ru

Growth scenario: when approaching 70000 it is possible to buy. Current levels are somewhat overvalued.

Downside scenario: we will not sell anything. There is a constant risk of a sudden rise in prices.

Diesel Market Recommendations:

Buy: when approaching 70,000. Stop: 68000. Target: 110000.

Sale: no.

Support — 70459. Resistance — 79160.

Рисунок 12

Propane butane (Surgut), ETP eOil.ru

Growth scenario: “another strike at 5000 cannot be ruled out,” we wrote a week ago, assuming we were somewhere near the bottom. Judging by the way we started rising, 7900 was actually the bottom.

Downside scenario: approach to 22000 will force to consider shorts. Current levels are not interesting for selling.

PBT Market Recommendations:

Buy: now (11000). Stop: 7800. Target: 36000.

Sale: no.

Support — 7891. Resistance — 19453.

Рисунок 13

Helium (Orenburg), ETP eOil.ru

Growth scenario: it makes sense to buy here. It is unlikely that the company will release helium cheaper. This is most likely the bottom.

Downside scenario: stay out of the market, prices are low.

Helium market recommendations:

Buy: possible. Those who are in position from 900, keep stop at 770. Target: 2000.

Sale: no.

Support — 813. Resistance is 949.

Рисунок 14

Gold. COMEX

Growth scenario: we consider the February futures, expiration date February 26. Once again, we have no guarantees of continued growth. Out of the market.

Downside scenario: short? At 2800, if only. Something’s gonna happen. Oh, something’s gonna happen. Remember, we’re up to 3150.

Gold Market Recommendations:

Buy: no.

Sell: when approaching 2800. Stop: 2820. Target: 2000????!!!!

Support — 2655. Resistance — 2760.

Рисунок 4

EUR/USD

Growth scenario: nothing new: it will be extremely difficult to go below 0.9900. If the pair will be in that area, we will buy.

Downside scenario: there is no sense in opening new shorts. We keep the old positions down.

Recommendations on euro/dollar pair:

Buy: when approaching 0.9900. Stop: 0.9800. Target: 1.1000.

Sell: no. Those who are in position from 1.0429, move the stop to 1.0360. Target: 0.9900.

Support — 1.0257. Resistance — 1.0332.

Рисунок 9

USD/RUB

Growth scenario: we consider March futures, expiration date March 20. Only after growth above 109000 we will buy. Or from 95000. And 95000 will be only if there will be the end of the SWO.

Downside scenario: technically it’s a short. And it looks very attractive. We will sell at touching 104900.

Recommendations on dollar/ruble pair:

Buy: think after rising above 109000.

Sell: at touching 104900. Stop: 105900. Target: 95000?!!!

Support — 104416. Resistance — 106676.

Рисунок 10

RTSI. MOEX

Growth scenario: we consider March futures, expiration date March 20. We have hit 92000. From this level there should be a correction to 85100, which can be used for buying.

Downside scenario: our sprawling sales did not end well. The market is stubbornly (stubbornly) climbing upward to the bright future, which is written with forks on the water. It is convenient to sell from the current levels. All these favorable loans to the military-industrial complex enterprises, and to developers, and to the agricultural sector… This tune will not play for a long time.

Recommendations on the RTS index:

Buy: not yet.

Sale: now (92030). Stop: 92400. Target: 60000.

Support — 90720. Resistance — 94500.

Рисунок 11

The recommendations in this article are NOT a direct guide for speculators and investors. All ideas and options for working on the markets presented in this material do NOT have 100% probability of execution in the future. The site does not take any responsibility for the results of deals.

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