Price forecast from 15 to 19 of November 2021
15 November 2021, 14:06
The wheat market continues to rise amid doubled fertilizer prices in both the US and Europe. In addition, fuel is also increasing in price around the world. The cost of new shipments of grain in 2022 will inevitably increase, which will lead to an increase in importers’ costs for food. You cannot buy, for example, some medications, but it doesn’t work with food.
It cannot be said that there will be little grain, there will be enough of it, but at the same time no one will give it below $ 300 per ton in the coming year.
What could lower grain prices in the future? First: the growth of the FRS rate in the United States in the middle of next year, the strengthening dollar is able to stop the growth of prices for raw materials and grain as well. Second: favorable weather conditions and a large volume of supply. Agriculture is currently becoming the number one business all over the world. Many will invest in fields and farms, even those who previously sold computers.
Reading our predictions, you could take profit in the wheat market got a move up from 717.0 to 816.0 cents per bushel.
Hello everyone! In Europe, another zombie apocalypse is brewing and it is far from a fact that everything will be much easier than last year, since the vaccinated are also infected. The number of cases in Germany has exceeded 50 thousand people at whole day, which jeopardizes the normal conduct of the New Year holidays, which make up a significant part of all retail trade.
If the situation deteriorates both in Germany and in other European countries, then this may lead to another lockdown, and then there will be no need to talk about any increase in oil demand.
Most likely, the oil market will slightly correct, and then everyone will watch the development of the situation with the virus and the actions of governments.
According to unconfirmed reports, the United States has already sold 3.5 million barrels of oil from the state reserve out of 600 million barrels in stock.
The question is: what will the American administration do when there is nothing left in the storage facilities and prices remain at the same levels? Answer: the countries of the Persian Gulf should still follow the democratic path of development. The presence on the map of some kingdoms and principalities where it is not known who rules and who knows how is absolutely unacceptable in the modern world. Or … you just have to increase production so that the price goes down to $ 40 per barrel, as Mr. Biden wants. Then the American boot will not set foot on the Arabian Peninsula to hammer «democratic values» right into the hot sand.
Over the past week, the ruble has somewhat surrendered its positions, which is associated both with the purchase of foreign currency by the Ministry of Finance for 25 billion rubles a day, and the suspension of the growth of quotations on the oil market. No one has any doubts that the Central Bank of the Russian Federation will raise the rate again on December 17, but if inflation continues to accelerate and exceeds 8% per annum, this may lead to the fact that horror among the people will intensify, and by the New Year it will happen. especially in the liquor market, and everything will lead to the fact that the US dollar will begin to be loved even more than before. Note that while the pair is below the level of 74.00, it is premature to start crying and sprinkle ashes on your head. Control yourself.
From the latter. 50 migrants broke through from Belarus to Poland. Well, the trouble is the beginning. Look, everyone will be allowed to go to Germany. The Germans will provide the next portion of those in need of good benefits. And all will be well.
Good deals, everyone.
Growth scenario: December futures, expiration date December 14. The market met our target at 816.0. Further growth is possible, but I would like to see a pullback to 775.0 for a new round of purchases.
Falling scenario: extremely aggressively we tried to break above 815.0. It scares. We do not sell. Recommendation:
Purchase: when approaching 775.0. Stop: 765.0. Target: 900.0.
Support — 805.6 (765.4). Resistance — 847.6 (901.4).
Growth scenario: December futures, expiration date December 14. We continue to hold longs with the target at 593.0. We do not open new positions up.
Falling scenario: waiting for the approach to the 600.0 area and selling, expecting a pullback to 570.0.
Purchase: no. Those who are in the position from 538.0, move the stop to 548.0. Target: 593.0.
Sale: when approaching 600.0. Stop: 607.0. Target: 570.0.
Support — 548.0. Resistance — 593.2.
Soybeans No. 1. CME Group
Growth scenario: January futures, expiration date January 14. We see a reversal in the market, but we will buy after the prices rise above 1280.0.
Falling scenario: we continue to hold the shorts as prices continue to be inside the falling channel.
Purchase: on touch 1111.0. Stop: 1002.0. Target: 1175.0. Think after rising above 1280.0.
Sale: no. Those who are in positions between 1400.0 and 1350.0, move the stop to 1280.0. Target: 1111.0.
Support — 1102.2. Resistance — 1267.2.
Sugar 11 white, ICE
Growth scenario: March futures, the expiration date is February 28. We will buy only after the growth above 20.70. The current growth is not impressive.
Falling scenario: here you can enter short. Moving to 18.15 remains possible.
Purchase: when approaching 18.15. Stop: 17.40. Target: 23.20. Or after rising above 20.70. Stop: 20.20. Target: 23.20.
Sale: now. Stop: 20.40. Target: 18.20. Whoever is in the position between 19.50 and 20.00, keep the stop at 20.40. Target: 18.20.
Support — 19.31. Resistance — 20.21.
Сoffee С, ICE
Growth scenario: December futures, the expiration date is December 20. The mark at 246.00 is visible without binoculars. We are gaining patience, holding longs.
Falling scenario: after the rise to 244.00, we will definitely sell. Out of the market now.
Purchase: no. Anyone in the position from 192.00, move the stop to 204.00. Target: 244.00.
Sale: when approaching 245.00. Stop: 266.0. Target: 166.00 ?!
Support — 199.05. Resistance — 246.35.
We’re looking at the volume of open interest of Brent managers. You should keep in your mind that these are data from three days ago (for Tuesday of the past week), they are also the most recent of those published by the ICE exchange.
Over the past week, the difference between long and short positions of managers decreased by 10.4 thousand contracts. For sellers, the current levels are tactically interesting, so they put pressure on quotes with their interest. It cannot be ruled out that prices will continue to fall moderately.
Growth scenario: November futures, expiration date November 30. As in the previous week, we continue to wait for the fall to the area of 76.00. We will buy there.
Falling scenario: here you can try to sell. It is best to do this when approaching 84.00, but the current levels are quite attractive.
Purchase: when approaching 76.00. Stop: 71.00. Target: 101.00. Or the growth field is above 88.0. Stop: 83.00. Target: 101.00.
Sale: on touch 87.80. Stop: 92.30. Target: 76.00. Or now and on the way to 84.00. Stop: 84.70. Target: 76.00.
Support — 80.17. Resistance — 85.41.
WTI. CME Group
Fundamental US data: the number of active drilling rigs increased by 4 units and is 454 units.
Commercial oil reserves in the US increased by 1.002 to 435.104 million barrels, against the forecast of +2.125 million barrels. Gasoline inventories fell -1.555 to 212.703 million barrels. Distillate stocks fell -2.613 to 124.509 million barrels. Stocks at Cushing’s storage dropped by -0.034 to 26.382 million barrels. Oil production has not changed at 11.5 million barrels per day. Oil imports fell by -0.064 to 6.108 million barrels per day. Oil exports rose by 0.128 to 3.053 million barrels per day. Thus, net oil imports fell by -0.192 to 3.055 million barrels per day. Refining increased by 0.4 to 86.7 percent.
Gasoline demand fell by -0.245 to 9.259 million barrels per day. Gasoline production fell by -0.122 to 10.054 million barrels per day. Gasoline imports fell by -0.08 to 0.587 million barrels per day. Gasoline exports rose 0.073 to 0.833 million barrels per day.
Distillate demand rose 0.594 to 4.28 million barrels. Distillate production rose 0.035 to 4.868 million barrels. Distillate imports rose 0.088 to 0.278 million barrels. Distillate exports rose 0.211 to 1.239 million barrels per day.
The demand for petroleum products fell by -0.707 to 19.29 million barrels. Production of petroleum products fell by -0.669 to 20.277 million barrels. Imports of petroleum products fell by -0.187 to 1.857 million barrels. Exports of petroleum products rose 0.86 to 6.196 million barrels per day.
Propane demand fell by -0.133 to 1.149 million barrels. Propane production rose 0.114 to 2.416 million barrels. Propane imports fell by -0.001 to 0.124 million barrels. Propane exports rose 0.499 to 1.582 million barrels per day.
Growth scenario: January futures, the expiration date is December 20. We could not pass above 83.80. We will buy either after growth above 84.00, or when approaching 70.00.
Falling scenario: like the previous week, we recommend selling based on the technical picture. The market is able to go to 70.00.
Purchase: after rising above 84.00. Stop: 82.00. Target: 98.00. Or when approaching 70.00. Stop: 68.00. Target: 98.00.
Sale: now. Stop: 82.70. Target: 71.00. Anyone in the position from 82.00, move the stop to 82.70. Target: 71.00.
Support — 77.28. Resistance — 83.80.
Growth scenario: December futures, the expiration date is December 10. No changes in the market. If we rise above 750.00, we will buy. The second option is to buy after falling to 615.00.
Falling scenario: like the week before, we recommend short from the current levels. Recommendation:
Purchase: after rising above 754.00. Stop: 714.00. Target: 850.00.
Sale: now. Stop: 743.0. Target: 615.0. Whoever is in the position between 750.00 and 720.00, move the stop to 743.00. Target: 615.00.
Support — 688.75. Resistance — 747.00.
Natural Gas. CME Group
Growth scenario: December futures, expiration date November 26. The sellers made a little mischief. Forgive them for this. We buy again. Falling scenario: do not sell. Winter is ahead. Europe continues fighting with Gazprom, it is worse for it.
Purchase: now and on the way to 4.500. Stop: 4.400. Target: 8.777.
Support — 4.827. Resistance — 5.280.
Gold. CME Group
Growth scenario: it was not in vain that we recommended purchases a week ago. The market has been growing for 7 days. There is a good chance of hitting the 1920 level in the near future.
Falling scenario: we don’t think about sales. It cannot be ruled out that a protracted bull market awaits us for gold.
Purchase: no. Anyone in the position from 1815.00, move the stop to 1805.0. Target: 2060.
Support — 1814. Resistance — 1923.
Growth scenario: the euro broke down and sank. The pair will most likely now reach the level of 1.1308, after which there will be some stop. We do not buy. There is a risk of falling to 1.1050.
Falling scenario: keep the shorts open three weeks ago. Moves to 1.1310 and 1.1060 are possible. Inflation in the US of 6.2% brings the likelihood of a rate hike closer not in summer, but in spring.
Sale: no. Those who are in positions between 1.1900 and 1.1650, move the stop to 1.1660. Target: 1.1310 (1.1060).
Support — 1.1308. Resistance — 1.1704.
Growth scenario: fans of the American, seeing retail inflation in the US of more than 6%, immediately began to bet against the ruble, counting on a quick rise in the Fed’s rate. The domestic Ministry of Finance helps the dollar as much as it can, buying currency every day for twenty billion rubles. While we are in a falling channel, but if the pair rises above 74.00 we will have to think about buying.
Falling scenario: current levels are good for selling. It is not a fact that oil will fall next week and put pressure on the ruble, although the prerequisites for its fall are becoming stronger every day.
Purchase: think after rising above 74.00.
Sale: now. Stop: 73.30. Target: 65.00. Those who are in positions between 70.70 and 71.50, keep the stop at 73.30. Target: 65.00.
Support — 72.22 (70.49). Resistance — 75.40.
Growth scenario: It cannot be said that the market has no chance of growth. Here you can buy with close stop levels. If the spiral of events unfolds, then we can quickly find ourselves at 215,000.
Falling scenario: just like a week earlier, we do not open new sell positions, we keep the old ones. The move to 170,000 is visible. We do not discard the move to 150,000, although some major unpleasant events will have to occur for this. For example, a very strong weakening of the ruble or the introduction of a protracted lockdown.
Purchase: now. Stop: 174000. Target: 215000. Sale: no. Who entered between 192700 and 190,000, move the stop to 184000. Target: 170,000 (150,000).
Support — 176250. Resistance — 187040.
The recommendations in this article are NOT a direct guide for speculators and investors. All ideas and options for working on the markets presented in this material do NOT have 100% probability of execution in the future. The site does not take any responsibility for the results of deals.