Price forecast from 13 to 17 of November 2023
13 November 2023, 13:59
Judging by USDA reporting, everything is generally good. Note that the gross corn harvest increased by 0.5%, which led to a drawdown that risks turning into a fall to the level of 400.0, which would be 15% of the current level. Wheat is unlikely to fall also radically, since forecasts for it remained at the October level, and even decreased slightly.
Saudi Arabia will double poultry production by 28, which should lead to increased demand for corn. At the same time, 60% of the corn used within the country is imported. At the same time, the demand for barley is gradually falling. Russia will be able to meet Saudi Arabia’s needs if necessary, while the EU and Ukraine are reducing supply.
Prices within the country continue to remain at low levels. 3rd class – 12,200 rubles. 4th class – 10,500 rubles, 5th class – 7,200 rubles. There is demand for domestic grain. It is stimulated, among other things, by instability in the world.
So far it does not seem that there will be any peace negotiations on Ukraine, but the very fact of their start, for example, in 24, could put pressure on the wheat market.
Nobody buys small and medium-sized diamonds. De Beers and Alrosa are jointly reducing supplies of raw materials and stones to the foreign market. Prices are falling. A crisis? Rather, the value system has changed. At the beginning the last Apple, then only a stone. We are waiting for the macaques to have insight and longevity and intelligence to be declared the main value.
This release was prepared with the direct participation of analysts from trading platforms eOil.ru and IDK.ru. Here is an assessment of the situation on the global and Russian markets.
The oil market continues to roll back downward, since there are no direct facts yet that Arab countries will enter the conflict. Yes, there is a lot of shouting from leaders, but they cannot harm supply chains in any way.
Most likely we will not be able to go below 75.00 Brent in the next couple of weeks. Only after the 25th, when a face-to-face meeting takes place in Vienna, will it be possible to speculate about what will happen next. Oil below 80.00 will not suit Saudi Arabia. Therefore, there may be new cuts.
Yes, China is starting to scary us. The bankruptcy of the two largest developers exposed the bluff of the CCP’s reporting, which is forcing capital to leave the country. And this could cause a long-term decline in oil demand. It is unpleasant for exporters to realize that OPEC’s Napoleonic plans for 2024 may turn out to be a bluff.
Europe filled its storage facilities with gas and left Gazprom, most likely, if not for many years, then certainly for 5–10 years.
By reading our forecasts, you could take a downward move in WTI from 88.00 to 76.30.
The ruble stopped strengthening even against the backdrop of the fact that Nabiullina conducted a verbal intervention, suggesting that the Central Bank of the Russian Federation would raise the rate again before the end of the year.
According to technology, we can expect a rise to the area of 97.00, but we cannot rise higher if we expect to someday be at 76.00.
Note that if demand for imports within the country continues to remain high, then due to the weakening trade balance, the ruble is unlikely to be able to rise significantly against the dollar. It will not be easy to consolidate below 76.00.
Wheat No. 2 Soft Red. CME Group
We’re looking at the volume of open interest of managers. You should keep in your mind that these are data from three days ago (for Tuesday of the past week), they are also the most recent of those published by the CME Group.
Growth scenario: we are considering December futures, expiration date is December 14. So far we have not seen a strong attack from the bulls. But we were pulled into a long position from 580.0. We stand, we hold.
Fall scenario: as before, we refuse to sell. There will now be no new grain until next year.
Recommendations for the wheat market:
Purchase: when approaching 515.0. Stop: 497.0. Target: 647.0 (710.0). For those in position from 580.0, keep your stop at 570.0. Target: 647.0 (710.0).
Support – 553.5. Resistance – 582.3.
Corn No. 2 Yellow. CME Group
We look at the volumes of open interest of corn managers. You should keep in mind that this is data from three days ago (for Tuesday of last week), and it is also the most recent of those published by the CME Group exchange.
Growth scenario: we are considering December futures, expiration date is December 14. We are falling. It is possible that we will go very low. We are not buying yet.
Fall scenario: set a new low. We will sell it, although these are not the most optimal levels.
Recommendations for the corn market:
Sale: now. Stop: 474.0. Goal: 393.0!
Support – 447.2. Resistance – 466.7.
Soybeans No. 1. CME Group
Growth scenario: we are considering November futures, expiration date January 12. Soybeans retain the potential to continue their upward movement. But given the improvement in forecasts for it, we are not buying.
Fall scenario: who entered short from 1380 — good, we clearly did not recommend this level. Let’s continue to pause, it seems like we should go lower, but there are doubts.
Recommendations for the soybean market:
Support – 1334.2. Resistance – 1380.2.
We’re looking at the volume of open interest of managers. You should keep in your mind that these are data from three days ago (for Tuesday of the past week), they are also the most recent of those published by the ICE exchange.
There are currently more open long asset manager positions than short positions. Over the past week, the difference between long and short positions of managers decreased by 21.7 thousand contracts. 6,000 sellers’ contracts came in and 15,000 buyer’s contracts left. The bulls continue to control the market.
Growth scenario: we are considering November futures, expiration date is November 30. Levels for purchases have become much more attractive, but we are waiting for 76.00.
Fall scenario: we continue to believe that there is no point in selling. The entire Middle East could explode at any moment.
Recommendations for the Brent oil market:
Purchase: when approaching 76.00. Stop:74.00. Goal: 150.00.
Support – 75.86. Resistance – 82.26.
WTI. CME Group
US fundamentals: the number of active drilling rigs fell by 2 to 494.
Growth scenario: we are considering December futures, expiration date November 20. We got a strong drop and bought from 76.00. Those interested can add from 73.50.
Fall scenario: we continue to hold the shorts opened the week before last. A move towards 75.00 cannot be ruled out.
Recommendations for WTI oil:
Purchase: when approaching 73.50. Stop: 70.00. Target: 83.00. If you are in a position from 76.00, move your stop to 76.10. Goal: 120.00?!
Support – 73.47. Resistance – 80.10.
Growth scenario: we are considering November futures, expiration date is December 12. We’ll take it when approaching 700.0, if the market gives such an opportunity. We do nothing at current prices.
Fall scenario: and we continued to fall… Not obvious behavior. We do not sell at current prices.
Recommendations for Gasoil:
Purchase: when approaching 700.00. Stop: 670.00. Goal: 830.00.
Support – 698.25. Resistance – 800.25.
Natural Gas. CME Group
Growth scenario: we are considering December futures, expiration date November 28. They took it and fell. We were already out of position, so it’s okay. For now we will remain outside the market. Capitalists quickly filled supplies from Russia.
Fall scenario: out of market. Prices are low.
Natural gas recommendations:
Support – 2.805. Resistance – 3.211.
Diesel arctic fuel, ETP eOil.ru
Growth scenario: no changes. We are waiting for the price to drop to 65,000. It will be possible to buy there.
Fall scenario: also no change. Let’s continue to stay short.
Recommendations for the diesel market:
Purchase: when approaching 65,000. Stop: 58,000. Target: 85,000.
Sale: no. If you are in a position from 85000, keep your stop at 91000. Target: 66000.
Support – 76104. Resistance – 87705.
Propane butane (Surgut), ETP eOil.ru
Growth scenario: too aggressive growth. We continue to refrain from shopping.
Fall scenario: shorts from 31000 can give some profit. Let’s hold him. You can also enter the sale from current levels.
Recommendations for the PBT market:
Sale: now. Stop: 33000. Target: 20000. Anyone in position between 30000 and 31000, keep the stop at 33000. Target: 20000.
Support – 26641. Resistance – 35000
Helium (Orenburg), ETP eOil.ru
Growth scenario: it’s too early to buy at current prices. We are waiting for a fall to 3415, we think there.
Fall scenario: we continue to remain out of the market.
Helium Market Recommendations:
Support – 3414. Resistance – 4320.
Gold. CME Group
Growth scenario: for now we will believe in the growth of gold and hold longs, especially since we missed the opportunity to exit the long position at good levels around 2000.
Fall scenario: went down. We won’t sell. Nothing is clear about Israel yet.
Recommendations for the gold market:
Purchase: when approaching 1910. Stop: 1900. Target: 2400. If you are in a position from 1840, keep your stop at 1910. Target: 2400.
Support – 1908. Resistance – 1969.
Growth scenario: we will keep buying. At the top we have both 1.1200 and 1.2000. Note that we are swinging very hard; if we plan to go up, then this must be done more aggressively.
Fall scenario: we will not sell, although we do not deny that the dollar may rise against the background of the war.
Recommendations for the euro/dollar pair:
Purchase: no. If you are in a position from 1.0700, move your stop to 1.0620. Target: 1.2000.
Support – 1.0641. Resistance – 1.0756.
Growth scenario: buying from 87.50 continues to interest us very much, but the market is in no hurry to get there yet. It is better to work out longs from current levels on an hourly basis.
Fall scenario: if the ruble cannot strengthen under current conditions: both the rate is high and the oil price is not bad, then… then we should not dream of 75.00.
Recommendations for the dollar/ruble pair:
Purchase: when approaching 86.00. Stop: 83.00. Goal: 100.00.
Sale: now. Stop: 94.10. Target: 87.60.
Support – 91.61. Resistance – 93.72.
Growth scenario: we are considering December futures, expiration date is December 21. We continue to want to buy from 103,000, but they haven’t given it to us yet. Buying from current levels is completely uninteresting.
Fall scenario: we won’t do anything during the days for now. Sales at smaller intervals are possible.
Recommendations for the RTS Index:
Purchase: when approaching 103000. Stop: 101000. Target: 116000.
Support – 107850. Resistance – 110400.
The recommendations in this article are NOT a direct guide for speculators and investors. All ideas and options for working on the markets presented in this material do NOT have 100% probability of execution in the future. The site does not take any responsibility for the results of deals.